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Speculative growth, overreaction, and the welfare cost of technology-driven bubbles

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  • Lansing, Kevin J.

Abstract

This paper develops a general equilibrium model to examine the quantitative effects of speculative bubbles on capital accumulation, growth, and welfare. A near-rational bubble component in the model equity price generates excess volatility in response to observed technology shocks. In simulations, intermittent equity price run-ups coincide with positive innovations in technology, investment and consumption booms, and faster trend growth, reminiscent of the U.S. economy during the late 1920s and late 1990s. The welfare cost of speculative bubbles depends crucially on parameter values. Bubbles can improve welfare if risk aversion is low and agents underinvest relative to the socially optimal level. But for higher levels of risk aversion, the welfare cost of bubbles is large, typically exceeding 1% of annual consumption.

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  • Lansing, Kevin J., 2012. "Speculative growth, overreaction, and the welfare cost of technology-driven bubbles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 461-483.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:83:y:2012:i:3:p:461-483
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2012.02.011
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    Cited by:

    1. Gelain, Paolo & Lansing, Kevin J., 2014. "House prices, expectations, and time-varying fundamentals," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 3-25.
    2. Raurich, Xavier & Seegmuller, Thomas, 2019. "On the interplay between speculative bubbles and productive investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 400-420.
    3. Daisuke Ikeda & Toan Phan, 2016. "Toxic asset bubbles," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 61(2), pages 241-271, February.
      • Daisuke Ikeda & Toan Phan, 2016. "Toxic asset bubbles," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 61(2), pages 241-271, February.
    4. Duca, John V., 2017. "The Great Depression versus the Great Recession in the U.S.: How fiscal, monetary, and financial polices compare," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 50-64.
    5. Tarek A. Hassan & Thomas M. Mertens, 2017. "The Social Cost of Near-Rational Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 1059-1103, April.
    6. Farouq Abdulaziz Masoudy, 2018. "Accurate Evaluation of Asset Pricing Under Uncertainty and Ambiguity of Information," Papers 1801.06966, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2018.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Excess volatility; Asset pricing; Speculative bubbles; Endogenous growth; Business cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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