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When Kahneman meets Manski: Using dual systems of reasoning to interpret subjective expectations of equity returns

  • Fabian Gouret
  • Guillaume Hollard

To understand how decisions to invest in stocks are taken, economists need to elicit expectations relative to expected risk-return trade-off. One of the few surveys which have included such questions is the Survey of Economic Expectations in 1999-2001. Using this survey, Dominitz and Manski find an important heterogeneity across respondents that can hardly be accounted for by simple models of expectations formation. This paper claims that much of the heterogeneity derives from pathologies affecting respondents. Adapting a principle of dual-reasoning borrowed from Kahneman, we classify respondents according to their sensitivity to these pathologies, and find a strong homogeneity across the less sensitive respondents. We then sketch a model of expectation formation.

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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 26 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (04)
Pages: 371-392

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Handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:26:y:2011:i:3:p:371-392
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0883-7252/

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  1. Hurd, Michael D, 1999. "Anchoring and Acquiescence Bias in Measuring Assets in Household Surveys," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 19(1-3), pages 111-36, December.
  2. Emmanuel Flachaire & Guillaume Hollard, 2008. "Individual sensitivity to framing effects," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00176025, HAL.
  3. Daniel Kahneman, 2003. "Maps of Bounded Rationality: Psychology for Behavioral Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1449-1475, December.
  4. repec:use:tkiwps:2323 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2007. "Expected Equity Returns and Portfolio Choice: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 369-379, 04-05.
  6. Péter Hudomiet & Gábor Kézdi & Robert J. Willis, 2011. "Stock market crash and expectations of American households," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 393-415, 04.
  7. Christelis, Dimitris & Jappelli, Tullio & Padula, Mario, 2006. "Cognitive Abilities and Portfolio Choice," CEPR Discussion Papers 5735, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Dominitz, Jeff, 2001. "Estimation of income expectations models using expectations and realization data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 165-195, June.
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