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Associative Memory and Belief Formation

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  • Benjamin Enke
  • Frederik Schwerter
  • Florian Zimmermann

Abstract

Information is often embedded in memorable contexts, which may cue the asymmetric recall of similar past news through associative memory. We design a theorydriven experiment, in which participants observe signals about hypothetical companies. Here, identical signal realizations are communicated with identical contexts: stories and images. Because participants asymmetrically remember those past signals that get cued by the current context, beliefs systematically overreact. This overreaction depends in predictable ways on the signal history; the correlation between signals and contexts; and the scope for forgetting and associative memory. We quantify these results by structurally estimating a model of associative recall.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Enke & Frederik Schwerter & Florian Zimmermann, 2020. "Associative Memory and Belief Formation," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_148, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2020_148
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    File URL: https://www.crctr224.de/research/discussion-papers/archive/dp148
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    5. Eric Bettinger & Nina Cunha & Guilherme Lichand & Ricardo Madeira, 2020. "Are the effects of informational interventions driven by salience?," ECON - Working Papers 350, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised May 2021.
    6. Silvia Angerer & E. Glenn Dutcher & Daniela Glätzle-Rützler & Philipp Lergetporer & Matthias Sutter, 2021. "The Formation of Risk Preferences through Small-Scale Events," CESifo Working Paper Series 9270, CESifo.
    7. Belot, Michèle & Schröder, Marina, 2023. "Remember me? The role of gender and racial attributes in memory," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    8. Hagenbach, Jeanne & Koessler, Frédéric, 2022. "Selective memory of a psychological agent," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    9. Michael Weber & Francesco D'Acunto & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2022. "The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms: Measurement, Determinants, and Implications," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 157-184, Summer.
    10. Jean-Paul L'Huillier & Sanjay R. Singh & Donghoon Yoo, 2021. "Incorporating Diagnostic Expectations into the New Keynesian Framework," Working Papers 339, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    11. Bowen, T. Renee & Galperti, Simone & Dmitriev, Danil, 2021. "Learning from Shared News: When Abundant Information Leads to Belief Polarization," CEPR Discussion Papers 15789, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Schwerter, Frederik & Zimmermann, Florian, 2020. "Determinants of trust: The role of personal experiences," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 413-425.
    13. Jonas Radbruch & Amelie Schiprowski, 2024. "Interview Sequences and the Formation of Subjective Assessments," CESifo Working Paper Series 10957, CESifo.
    14. Thomas Graeber & Christopher Roth & Florian Zimmermann & Thomas W. Graeber, 2022. "Stories, Statistics, and Memory," CESifo Working Paper Series 10107, CESifo.
    15. Jonas Radbruch & Amelie Schiprowski, 2024. "Interview Sequences and the Formation of Subjective Assessments," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 497, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    16. Abel, Martin & Burger, Rulof, 2023. "Unpacking Name-Based Race Discrimination," IZA Discussion Papers 16254, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Caballero, Adrián & López-Pérez, Raúl, 2022. "Heterogeneous primacy and recency effects in frequency estimation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 182-203.
    18. George Loewenstein & Zachary Wojtowicz, 2023. "The Economics of Attention," CESifo Working Paper Series 10712, CESifo.
    19. Adloff, Susann, 2021. "Adapting to Climate Change: Threat Experience, Cognition and Protection Motivation," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242400, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    20. Pedro Bordalo & Giovanni Burro & Katherine B. Coffman & Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, 2022. "Imagining the Future: Memory, Simulation and Beliefs about Covid," NBER Working Papers 30353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Xie, Erhao, 2021. "Empirical properties and identification of adaptive learning models in behavioral game theory," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 798-821.
    22. Fedyk, Anastassia & Hodson, James, 2023. "When can the market identify old news?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(1), pages 92-113.
    23. Botond Kőszegi & George Loewenstein & Takeshi Murooka, 2022. "Fragile Self-Esteem [Students’ Response to Academic Setback: “Growth Mindset” as a Buffer against Demotivation]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(4), pages 2026-2060.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Beliefs; expectations; memory; bounded rationality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles

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