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Stories, statistics, and memory

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Graeber

    (University of Harvard)

  • Christopher Roth

    (University of Cologne)

  • Florian Zimmermann

    (University of Bonn)

Abstract

Widespread misperceptions shape attitudes on key societal topics, such as climate change and the recent pandemic. These belief distortions are puzzling in contexts where accurate statistical information is broadly available and attended to. This column argues that the nature of human memory may be key for understanding the persistence of misperceptions in practice. It documents that anecdotal information in the form of stories comes to mind more easily than statistical information, generating the potential for systematic belief biases.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Graeber & Christopher Roth & Florian Zimmermann, 2023. "Stories, statistics, and memory," ECONtribute Policy Brief Series 045, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:ajk:ajkpbs:045
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    File URL: https://www.econtribute.de/RePEc/ajk/ajkpbs/ECONtribute_PB_045_2023.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter Andrebriq & Carlo Pizzinelli & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2022. "Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy: Evidence From Experts and Representative Samples," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(6), pages 2958-2991.
    2. Benjamin Enke, 2020. "What You See Is All There Is," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(3), pages 1363-1398.
    3. Kfir Eliaz & Ran Spiegler, 2020. "A Model of Competing Narratives," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(12), pages 3786-3816, December.
    4. Benjamin Enke & Frederik Schwerter & Florian Zimmermann, 2019. "Associative Memory and Belief Formation," CESifo Working Paper Series 7916, CESifo.
    5. Nicholas Epley & Thomas Gilovich, 2016. "The Mechanics of Motivated Reasoning," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(3), pages 133-140, Summer.
    6. Roland Bénabou & Jean Tirole, 2005. "Self-Confidence and Personal Motivation," International Economic Association Series, in: Bina Agarwal & Alessandro Vercelli (ed.), Psychology, Rationality and Economic Behaviour, chapter 2, pages 19-57, Palgrave Macmillan.
    7. Peter Andre & Ingar Haaland & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Narratives about the Macroeconomy," CEBI working paper series 21-18, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
    8. Thiemo Fetzer & Lukas Hensel & Johannes Hermle & Christopher Roth, 2021. "Coronavirus Perceptions and Economic Anxiety," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(5), pages 968-978, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Anwesha Banerjee & Katharina Momsen, 2025. "(Un-)scientifically Spun: Narratives, Belief Updating, and Pro-Environmental Behavior," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 88(12), pages 3873-3903, December.
    2. Francesco Bilotta & Alberto Binetti & Giacomo Manferdini, 2025. "Blameocracy: Causal Rhetoric in Politics," Papers 2504.06550, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2025.
    3. Hong, Eunpyo & Kottimukkalur, Badrinath & Noh, Joonki, 2026. "Uncertain Text and Price Reactions to Earnings Releases," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    4. Guo, Junjie & Tang, Li & Xie, Shihan & Yin, Penghui, 2025. "Navigating fiscal fog: Household expectations in an uncertain fiscal environment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    5. George Loewenstein & Zachary Wojtowicz, 2023. "The Economics of Attention," CESifo Working Paper Series 10712, CESifo.
    6. Bocar A. Ba & Abdoulaye Ndiaye & Roman G. Rivera & Alexander Whitefield, 2024. "Mispricing Narratives after Social Unrest," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 096, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    7. Enke, Benjamin & Schwerter, Frederik & Zimmermann, Florian, 2024. "Associative memory, beliefs and market interactions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    8. Andrea Amelio & Florian Zimmermann, 2023. "Motivated Memory in Economics—A Review," Games, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, January.
    9. Roth, Christopher & Schwardmann, Peter & Tripodi, Egon, 2024. "Misperceived effectiveness and the demand for psychotherapy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    10. Dor Morag & George Loewenstein, 2025. "Narratives and Valuations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 71(6), pages 5376-5395, June.
    11. Robin Musolff & Florian Zimmermann, 2025. "Model Uncertainty," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 369, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    12. Benjamin Christoffersen & Arvid Hoffmann & Zwetelina Iliewa & Lena Jaroszek, 2025. "Experience Effects on Wall Street vs. Main Street: Field and Lab Evidence of Context Dependence," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_684, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    13. Marta Serra-Garcia, 2026. "The Attention-Information Trade-Off," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 116(5), pages 1579-1610, May.
    14. Qiang Chen & Tianyang Han & Jin Li & Ye Luo & Zigan Wang & Yuxiao Wu & Xiaowei Zhang & Tuo Zhou, 2025. "Can AI Master Econometrics? Evidence from Econometrics AI Agent on Expert-Level Tasks," Papers 2506.00856, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2026.
    15. Mo, Zhexun & Kaeppel, Katharina & Schröder, Carsten & Yang, Li, 2025. "When Facts Fail: Experimental Evidence on Perceptions and Preferences towards Chinese Investments in Germany," SocArXiv 74k3v_v1, Center for Open Science.
    16. Rossello, Giulia & Martinelli, Arianna, 2025. "The effect of lobbies' narratives on academics' perceptions of scientific publishing: A survey experiment," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    17. Ge, Erqi, 2025. "Political speeches and stock market performance: Evidence from China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    18. Burdin, Gabriel & Landini, Fabio, 2025. "Beliefs and the Demand for Employee Ownership," IZA Discussion Papers 18196, IZA Network @ LISER.
    19. Angelico, Cristina, 2024. "The green transition and firms' expectations on future prices: Survey evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 519-543.
    20. Narnoli, Pooja & Mishra, Deepak K., 2026. "The ‘past’ in the present (and futures) of a colliery basti: Case study of a resettled coal community in Eastern India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    21. Ahmed, Haseeb & Giffin, Erin & Manian, Shanthi, 2025. "Memory constraints in adoption of productive technologies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).

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