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Confidence and Career Choices: An Experiment

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  • Barron, Kai

    (University College London and WZB Berlin)

  • Gravert, Christina

    (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)

Abstract

Confidence is often seen as the key to success. Empirical evidence about whether such beliefs causally map into actions is, however, sparse. In this paper, we experimentally investigate the causal effect of an increase in confidence about one’s own ability on two central choices made by workers in the labor market: choosing between jobs with different incentive schemes, and the subsequent choice of how much effort to exert within the job. Using a hard-easy task manipulation to shift beliefs, we find that beliefs can be shifted, which in turn shifts decisions. In our setting, the beliefs of low ability individuals are more malleable than those of high ability individuals. Therefore, the treatment induces an increase in confidence and detrimental decision making by low ability workers but does not affect the outcomes of high ability workers. Men and women react similarly to the treatment. However, men hold higher baseline beliefs, implying that women make better incentive choice decisions. Policy implications regarding pre-labor market confidence development by means of feedback and grade inflation are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Barron, Kai & Gravert, Christina, 2018. "Confidence and Career Choices: An Experiment," Working Papers in Economics 715, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0715
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    Cited by:

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    3. Manar Alnamlah & Christina Gravert, 2020. "She Could Not Agree More: The Role of Failure Attribution in Shaping the Gender Gap in Competition Persistence," CEBI working paper series 20-25, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
    4. Murad, Zahra & Starmer, Chris, 2021. "Confidence snowballing and relative performance feedback," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 550-572.
    5. Yves Breitmoser & Lian Xue & Jiwei Zheng & Daniel John Zizzo, 2023. "Organizational Design and Error Propagation: Theory and Experiment," Discussion Papers Series 666, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Overconfidence; experiment; beliefs; real-effort; grade inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • M50 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Personnel Economics - - - General

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