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The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms: Measurement, Determinants, and Implications

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Cited by:

  1. Andrew Caplin & Eungik Lee & Søren Leth-Petersen & Johan Sæverud, 2022. "Communicating Social Security Reform," NBER Working Papers 30645, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Olivier Coibion & Dimitris Georgarakos & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2023. "Forward Guidance and Household Expectations," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(5), pages 2131-2171.
  3. Janet Hua Jiang & Rupal Kamdar & Kelin Lu & Daniela Puzzello, 2024. "How Do Households Respond to Expected Inflation? An Investigation of Transmission Mechanisms," Staff Working Papers 24-44, Bank of Canada.
  4. Pavlova, Lora, 2024. "Framing effects in consumer expectations surveys," ZEW Discussion Papers 24-036, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
  5. Albuquerque, Rui & de Araujo, Bruno & Brandao-Marques, Luis & Mosse, Gerivasia & de Vletter, Pippy & Zavale, Helder, 2024. "Market timing, farmer expectations, and liquidity constraints," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
  6. Grigoli, Francesco & Sandri, Damiano, 2024. "Public debt and household inflation expectations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
  7. Ehrmann, Michael, 2024. "Trust in central banks," Working Paper Series 3006, European Central Bank.
  8. Hana Braitsch & James Mitchell & Taylor Shiroff, 2024. "Practice Makes Perfect: Learning Effects with Household Point and Density Forecasts of Inflation," Working Papers 24-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  9. Wehrhöfer, Nils, 2023. "Energy prices and inflation expectations: Evidence from households and firms," Discussion Papers 28/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  10. Mark Setterfield, 2023. "Inflation and distribution during the post-COVID recovery: a Kaleckian approach," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(4), pages 587-611, October.
  11. Huber, Florian & Onorante, Luca & Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2024. "Forecasting euro area inflation using a huge panel of survey expectations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1042-1054.
  12. Ales Marsal & Katrin Rabitsch & Lorant Kaszab, 2023. "From Linear to Nonlinear: Rethinking Inflation Dynamics in the Calvo Pricing Mechanism," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp350, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
  13. Hajdini, Ina & Knotek, Edward S. & Leer, John & Pedemonte, Mathieu & Rich, Robert & Schoenle, Raphael, 2024. "Indirect consumer inflation expectations: Theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(S).
  14. Ahn, Hie Joo & Xie, Shihan & Yang, Choongryul, 2024. "Effects of monetary policy on household expectations: The role of homeownership," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
  15. Eleonora Granziera & Vegard H. Larsen & Greta Meggiorini & Leonardo Melosi, 2025. "Speaking of Inflation: The Influence of Fed Speeches on Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 11992, CESifo.
  16. Goldfayn-Frank, Olga & Kieren, Pascal & Trautmann, Stefan, 2024. "A Choice-Based Approach to the Measurement of Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 0742, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  17. Kozo UEDA, 2024. "Inflation Expectations and Spending: Evidence from an Experiment and Bank Transaction Data in Japan," CIGS Working Paper Series 24-021E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
  18. Becker, Christoph & Dürsch, Peter & Eife, Thomas A. & Glas, Alexander, 2023. "Households' probabilistic inflation expectations in high-inflation regimes," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-072, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
  19. Salomé Fofana & Paula Patzelt & Ricardo Reis, 2024. "Household Disagreement about Expected Inflation," Discussion Papers 2418, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
  20. ETHAN M.L. McCLURE & VITALIIA YAREMKO & OLIVIER COIBION & YURIY GORODNICHENKO, 2025. "The Macroeconomic Expectations of U.S. Managers," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(4), pages 683-716, June.
  21. Binetti, Alberto & Nuzzi, Francesco & Stantcheva, Stefanie, 2024. "People’s understanding of inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(S).
  22. Go Fujii & Shogo Nakano & Kosuke Takatomi, 2025. "Households' Medium- to Long-Term Inflation Expectations Formation: The Role of Past Experience and Inflation Regimes," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 25-E-6, Bank of Japan.
  23. Nikoleta Anesti & Vania Esady & Matthew Naylor, 2024. "Food prices matter most: Sensitive household inflation expectations," Discussion Papers 2434, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
  24. Michael Weber, 2022. "Subjective inflation expectations of households," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 57(4), pages 217-221, October.
  25. Michael Weber & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2023. "The Expected, Perceived, and Realized Inflation of US Households Before and During the COVID19 Pandemic," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 326-368, March.
  26. Demgensky, Lisa & Fritsche, Ulrich, 2023. "Narratives on the causes of inflation in Germany: First results of a pilot study," WiSo-HH Working Paper Series 77, University of Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, WISO Research Laboratory.
  27. Conrad, Christian & Lahiri, Kajal, 2023. "Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-062, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
  28. Haselmann, Rainer & Heider, Florian & Pelizzon, Loriana & Weber, Michael, 2025. "Key challenges for monetary policy," SAFE Policy Letters 106, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
  29. Joni Heikkinen & Kari Heimonen, 2025. "Media Tone: The Role of News and Social Media on Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(3), pages 881-921, April.
  30. Thierno Thioune & Dieudonné Mignamissi & Séraphin Brice Minkoé Bikoula, 2025. "The Non-linear effect of Inflation on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does Democracy Matter?," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 16(1), pages 5548-5571, March.
  31. Dieudonné Mignamissi & Séraphin Brice Minkoé Bikoula & Thierno Thioune, 2023. "Inflation and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Role of Institutions," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 21(4), pages 847-871, December.
  32. Schnorpfeil, Philip & Weber, Michael & Hackethal, Andreas, 2023. "Households' response to the wealth effects of inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 18440, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  33. Claudio Borio & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & James Yetman & Egon Zakrajsek, 2023. "The two-regime view of inflation," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 133.
  34. Swapnil Virendra Chalwadi & Preeti Tushar Joshi & Nitin Mohanlal Sharma & Chaitanya Gite & Sangita Salve, 2023. "Gender Differences in Inflation Expectations: Recent Evidence from India," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-14, February.
  35. Isabel Gameiro & Rita Duarte & Ildeberta Abreu, 2024. "Reaching out to the general public: a challenging journey for central banks," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  36. Michal Marencak, 2023. "State-dependent inflation expectations and consumption choices," Working and Discussion Papers WP 10/2023, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
  37. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench & Bruce Preston, 2025. "How Do We Learn About the Long Run?," Staff Reports 1150, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  38. Roberto Tamborini, 2024. "Inflation surprises in a New Keynesian economy with a “true” consumption function," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(3), pages 1192-1215, July.
  39. Dobrew, Michael & Gerke, Rafael & Giesen, Sebastian & Röttger, Joost, 2025. "Make-up strategies with incomplete markets and bounded rationality," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
  40. Ding Dong & Zheng Liu & Pengfei Wang & Min Wei, 2024. "Inflation Disagreement Weakens the Power of Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-094, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  41. Massimiliano Marcellino & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2022. "The demand and supply of information about inflation," CIRANO Working Papers 2022s-27, CIRANO.
  42. Wataru Miyamoto & Thuy Lan Nguyen & Dmitry Sergeyev, 2023. "How Oil Shocks Propagate: Evidence on the Monetary Policy Channel," Working Paper Series 2024-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  43. Braggion, Fabio & von Meyerinck, Felix & Schaub, Nic & Weber, Michael, 2024. "The Long-term Effects of Inflation on Inflation Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 18936, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  44. Sarah Brown & Mark N. Harris & Christopher Spencer & Karl Taylor, 2024. "Financial Expectations and Household Consumption: Does Middle‐Inflation Matter?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(4), pages 741-768, June.
  45. Ales Marsal & Katrin Rabitsch & Lorant Kaszab, 2023. "Undesired Consequences of Calvo Pricing in a Non-linear World," Working and Discussion Papers WP 1/2023, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
  46. Manish Jha & Jialin Qian & Michael Weber & Baozhong Yang, 2024. "Harnessing Generative AI for Economic Insights," Papers 2410.03897, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2025.
  47. Dmitri V. Vinogradov & Michael J. Lamla & Yousef Makhlouf, 2024. "Survey-based expectations and uncertainty attitudes," Working Papers 2024_02, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  48. Manish Jha & Jialin Qian & Michael Weber & Baozhong Yang, 2024. "ChatGPT and Corporate Policies," NBER Working Papers 32161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  49. Dietrich, Alexander M., 2023. "Consumption categories, household attention, and inflation expectations: Implications for optimal monetary policy," University of Tübingen Working Papers in Business and Economics 157, University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, School of Business and Economics.
  50. Grimaud, Alex & Salle, Isabelle & Vermandel, Gauthier, 2025. "A Dynare toolbox for social learning expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
  51. Dräger, Lena & Gründler, Klaus & Potrafke, Niklas, 2025. "Political shocks and inflation expectations: Evidence from the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
  52. Born, Benjamin & Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J., 2023. "On FIRE, news, and expectations," Working Papers 42, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
  53. Andreasen, Martin M. & Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Pellegrino, Giovanni, 2024. "Does risk matter more in recessions than in expansions? Implications for monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
  54. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2025. "Inflation, Expectations and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 33858, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  55. Michael T. Kiley, 2025. "Monetary Policy Strategy and the Anchoring of Long-Run Inflation Expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-027, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  56. Ben Knox & Yannick Timmer, 2024. "Stagflationary Stock Returns," CESifo Working Paper Series 11236, CESifo.
  57. Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Sibylle & Neumayer, Andreas & Streb, Jochen, 2023. "Heterogeneous inflation and deflation experiences and savings decisions during German industrialization," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
  58. Teresa Messner & Fabio Rumler, 2023. "Inflation expectations of Austrian households and firms amid high inflation," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q4/22-Q1/, pages 55-66.
  59. Vladimir Ivanov & Elena Nikishina, 2025. "Applying Behavioural Economics to Promote Financial Literate Behaviour: An Overview of Studies," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 84(2), pages 89-112, June.
  60. Philippe Andrade & Erwan Gautier & Eric Mengus & Emanuel Münch & Tobias Schmidt, 2025. "Household Beliefs about Fiscal Dominance," Working papers 986, Banque de France.
  61. Szwacka-Mokrzycka Joanna & Marzena Lemanowicz, 2023. "The Influence of Inflation on the Economic Situation of Households in Poland," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 119-132.
  62. Marcela De Castro-Valderrama & Santiago Forero-Alvarado & Nicolas Moreno-Arias & Sara Naranjo-Saldarriaga, 2022. "Unravelling the Narratives Behind Macroeconomic Forecasts," IHEID Working Papers 18-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  63. Gioia M. Mariani & Eleonora Porreca & Concetta Rondinelli, 2025. "How do households adjust house price expectations in an era of high inflation? Experimental evidence," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 940, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  64. Ignazio Visco, 2023. "Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 51(2), pages 111-129, September.
  65. Pavlova, Lora, 2025. "Framing effects in consumer expectations surveys," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
  66. Monique Reid & Pierre Siklos, 2023. "Rationality and biases insights from disaggregated firm level inflation expectations data," Working Papers 11050, South African Reserve Bank.
  67. Alberto Prati, 2024. "The Well‐Being Cost of Inflation Inequalities," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 70(1), pages 213-238, March.
  68. Dietrich, Alexander M., 2024. "Consumption categories, household attention, and inflation expectations: Implications for optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
  69. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Sergey K. Egiev, 2024. "Liquidity Traps: A Unified Theory of the Great Depression and Great Recession," NBER Working Papers 33195, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  70. Medina, J.P. & Mello, Miguel & Ponce, Jorge, 2024. "Heterogeneous inflation expectations: A call for customized monetary policy communication?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
  71. Marchesi, Daniele & Nikolova, Milena & Angelini, Viola, 2024. "Gini who? The relationship between inequality perceptions and life satisfaction," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1416, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
  72. Monique Reid & Pierre Siklos, 2025. "Whose inflation expectations forecast best Alternatives based on survey and financial data," Working Papers 11077, South African Reserve Bank.
  73. Leo Van Hove & Ronny Verbraecken, 2025. "Gender roles and inflation expectations: D’Acunto et al. revisited," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 797-818, June.
  74. Granziera, Eleanora & Larsen, Wegard H. & Meggiorini, Greta & Melosi, Leonardo, 2025. "Speaking of Inflation : The Influence of Fed Speeches on Expectations," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1555, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  75. repec:ptu:bdpart:e202405 is not listed on IDEAS
  76. Chin, Alycia & VanEpps, Eric M. & Scholl, Brian & Nash, Steven, 2025. "How should I know? Lack of confidence biases stock market expectations toward zero," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
  77. Anthony Brassil & Yahdullah Haidari & Jonathan Hambur & Gulnara Nolan & Callum Ryan, 2024. "How Do Households Form Inflation and Wage Expectations?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2024-07, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  78. Gazzani, Andrea & Venditti, Fabrizio & Veronese, Giovanni, 2024. "Oil price shocks in real time," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
  79. Carola Conces Binder & Rupal Kamdar & Jane M. Ryngaert, 2024. "Partisan Expectations and COVID-Era Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation in the COVID Era and Beyond, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  80. Mehmet Selman Colak & Abdullah Kazdal & Unal Seven & Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz, 2025. "Market Concentration and Firm Markups: Micro Evidence from an Emerging Market with Inflationary Pressures," Working Papers 2501, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  81. de Haan, Jakob & Hoogduin, Lex, 2024. "ECB communication policies: An overview and comparison with the Federal Reserve," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
  82. David, Antonio C. & Pienknagura, Samuel & Yépez, Juan F., 2025. "Can fiscal consolidations announcements help anchor inflation expectations?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  83. Kiss, Regina & Strasser, Georg, 2024. "Different household – different inflation rate," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 121.
  84. Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2024. "Inflation as a 'bad', heuristics and aggregate shocks: New evidence on expectation formation," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2024n03, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  85. Acharya, Viral & Crosignani, Matteo & Eisert, Tim & Eufinger, Christian, 2023. "How do supply shocks to inflation generalize? Evidence from the pandemic era in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 18530, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  86. Sandra Gomes & Nuno Monteiro & Pedro Pires Ribeiro, 2024. "Euro area inflation expectations: A focus on consumers’ expectations," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  87. Dräger, Lena & Gründler, Klaus & Potrafke, Niklas, 2025. "Peer Effects in Macroeconomic Expectations," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-739, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  88. Angelico, Cristina, 2024. "The green transition and firms' expectations on future prices: Survey evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 519-543.
  89. John C. Williams, 2023. "Effective dialogue and well anchored inflation expectations: essential tools for navigating challenging times," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Central banking in the Americas: Lessons from two decades, volume 127, pages 149-162, Bank for International Settlements.
  90. Pascal Büsing & Henning Cordes & Thomas Langer, 2023. "How the provision of inflation information affects pension contributions: A field experiment," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 90(3), pages 633-666, September.
  91. Oliver Pfauti, 2023. "The Inflation Attention Threshold and Inflation Surges," Papers 2308.09480, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
  92. James Mitchell & Saeed Zaman, 2023. "The Distributional Predictive Content of Measures of Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 23-31, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  93. Daria Minina & Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & Maarten van Rooij, 2024. "The effect of information on consumer inflation expectations," Working Papers 810, DNB.
  94. DiGiuseppe, Matthew & Garriga, Ana Carolina & Kern, Andreas, 2025. "Partisan Bias in Inflation Expectations," MPRA Paper 124391, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  95. Geng Li & Nitish R. Sinha, 2023. "Are Real Assets Owners Less Averse to Inflation? Evidence from Consumer Sentiments and Inflation Expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-058, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  96. Ko, Dong Gyun, 2025. "Did the American Rescue Plan cause inflation? A synthetic control approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
  97. Lovisa Reiche, 2024. "Beyond Groceries: Financial Confidence and the Gender Gap in Inflation Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 11588, CESifo.
  98. Francesco D'Acunto & Janet Gao & Lu Liu & Kai Lu & Zhengwei Wang & Jun Yang, 2025. "Subjective Expectations and Financial Intermediation," CESifo Working Paper Series 11780, CESifo.
  99. Rodrigo Barria & Gabor Pinter, 2023. "Mispricing in inflation markets," Bank of England working papers 1034, Bank of England.
  100. Dekimpe, Marnik G. & van Heerde, Harald J., 2023. "Retailing in times of soaring inflation: What we know, what we don't know, and a research agenda," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 322-336.
  101. repec:ptu:bdpart:e202410 is not listed on IDEAS
  102. Ethan Struby & Christina Farhart, 2024. "Inflation Expectations and Political Polarization: Evidence from the Cooperative Election Study," Working Papers 2024-01, Carleton College, Department of Economics.
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