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Inflated Concerns: Exposure to Past Inflationary Episodes and Preferences for Price Stability

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Nicolas E Magud
  • Samuel Pienknagura

Abstract

Using individual-level survey data for both advanced economies and emerging markets spanning over 45 years for 42 countries, we show that cohorts who have had higher exposure to past inflationary episodes (levels, as well as to more persistent or to more volatile inflation), systematically express higher concerns over rising prices. The link between past high inflation exposure and expressed concerns over price stability is particularly strong when an individual’s exposure occurs in the latter part of her working-age (as in lifecycle theory). The impact of past exposure to high inflation on contemporaneous preferences over price stability increases when surveyed in the midst of high ongoing inflation and with macroeconomic instability (as measured by GDP growth volatility), but diminishes with the quality of institutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Nicolas E Magud & Samuel Pienknagura, 2024. "Inflated Concerns: Exposure to Past Inflationary Episodes and Preferences for Price Stability," IMF Working Papers 2024/040, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/040
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