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Does The Exchange Rate Pass-Through Into Prices Change When Inflation Targeting Is Adopted? The Peruvian Case Study Between 1994 And 2007

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  • Paul Castillo
  • Luis Maertens Odria
  • Gabriel Rodríguez

    () (Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú)

Abstract

This paper analyzes whether the exchange rate pass-through into prices changed when the inflation targeting scheme was adopted in Peru. Firstly, a small dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is simulated, which shows that adopting this scheme induces an increase in exchange rate volatility. Furthermore, applying the theory of the currency denomination of international trade, it is demonstrated that increased exchange rate volatility reduces the share of firms that set their prices in foreign currency (dollars). Given that the pass-though has a direct relationship with this share, it is shown that adopting inflation targeting generates a pass-through contraction. Secondly, we empirically test whether the Peruvian Central Bank’s decision to adopt inflation targeting in January 2002 actually had an effect on the pass-through estimating a time-varying vector autoregressive model which allows for an asymmetrical estimation of the pass-through. It provides parameters for both the pre and post inflation targeting regimes based on the assumption that the transition from one regime to the other is smooth. An analysis of the generalized impulse response functions reveals that the decision to adopt inflation targeting significantly decreased the exchange rate pass-throughs into import, producer, and consumer prices. The results are consistent with economic theory and are robust to the specification of parameters of the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Castillo & Luis Maertens Odria & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2011. "Does The Exchange Rate Pass-Through Into Prices Change When Inflation Targeting Is Adopted? The Peruvian Case Study Between 1994 And 2007," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2011-314, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
  • Handle: RePEc:pcp:pucwps:wp00314
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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: A Perspective from the Developing World," Working Papers Series 324, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    2. Felipe Santos Tostes & Helder Ferreira De Mendonça, 2016. "Credibility On Pass-Through In Brazil," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42ndd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 022, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    3. Winkelried, Diego, 2012. "Traspaso del tipo de cambio y metas de inflación en el Perú," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 23, pages 9-24.
    4. repec:ris:betajl:0015 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Alex Contreras & Zenón Quispe & Fernando Regalado, 2017. "Real dollarization and monetary policy in Peru," IFC Bulletins chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Statistical implications of the new financial landscape, volume 43 Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Ismailov, Shakhzod & Kakinaka, Makoto & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2016. "Choice of inflation targeting: Some international evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 350-369.
    7. repec:lrc:lareco:v:5:y:2017:i:5:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Fernando J. Pérez Forero & Marco Vega, 2016. "Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-through: Evidence from Nonlinear SVARs," Working Papers 2016-63, Peruvian Economic Association.
    9. Helder Mendonça & Felipe Tostes, 2015. "The Effect of Monetary and Fiscal Credibility on Exchange Rate Pass-Through in an Emerging Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 787-816, September.
    10. Renzo Rossini & Marco Vega & Zenón Quispe & Fernando Perez, 2016. "Inflation expectations and dollarisation in Peru," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, volume 89, pages 275-289 Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation targeting/exchange rate pass-through into prices/ TV-VAR models;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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