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Estimating Models for Monetary Policy Analysis in Emerging Countries

  • Javier García-Cicco

We estimate a DSGE model of an emerging country containing many frictions that, as has been recently argued, impose non-trivial constraints for monetary-policy design in these economies. In particular, our framework features a sectoral decomposition of the productive sector, the use of intermediate inputs, imperfect pass-through, endogenous premium to finance capital accumulation, balance sheet effects due to liability dollarization, currency substitution, price and wage stickiness, and dynamics driven by eleven shocks. We use a Bayesian approach to Mexican data to address three main questions: i) can the model satisfactorily fit the data? Our answer is generally yes, with some caveats; ii) are the estimated parameters similar to those usually calibrated in policy-related studies? The answer is negative, particularly for those describing financial frictions, price stickiness and money demand. Finally, which of the emerging-markets’ frictions are more relevant in fitting the data? We find that including intermediate inputs is most important, while currency substitution does not seem to play a major role. Moreover, financial frictions and liability dollarization are also relevant.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 561.

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Date of creation: Mar 2010
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:561
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  1. Paul Castillo & Carlos Montoro & Vicente Tuesta, 2013. "An Estimated Stochastic General Equilibrium Model with Partial Dollarization: A Bayesian Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 217-265, April.
  2. Chernozhukov, Victor & Hong, Han, 2003. "An MCMC approach to classical estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 293-346, August.
  3. Nicoletta Batini & Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman, 2007. "Monetary Rules in Emerging Economies with Financial Market Imperfections," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0807, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  4. Michael B. Devereux & Philip R. Lane & Juanyi Xu, 2006. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(511), pages 478-506, 04.
  5. John Geweke, 1998. "Using simulation methods for Bayesian econometric models: inference, development, and communication," Staff Report 249, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  6. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio Natalucci, 2001. "External constraints on monetary policy and the financial accelerator," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  7. Elekdag, Selim & Tchakarov, Ivan, 2007. "Balance sheets, exchange rate policy, and welfare," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3986-4015, December.
  8. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2002. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3096, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2005. "Emerging Capital Markets in Turmoil: Bad Luck or Bad Policy?," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262033348, June.
  10. Kadiyala, K Rao & Karlsson, Sune, 1997. "Numerical Methods for Estimation and Inference in Bayesian VAR-Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 99-132, March-Apr.
  11. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Solving Dynamic General Equilibrium Models Using a Second-Order Approximation to the Policy Function," Departmental Working Papers 200106, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  12. Pablo Andres Neumeyer & Martín Gonzalez Rozada, 2003. "The elasticity of Substitution in demand for Non tradable Goods in Latin America. Case Study: Argentina," Department of Economics Working Papers 027, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  13. Cook, David, 2004. "Monetary policy in emerging markets: Can liability dollarization explain contractionary devaluations?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1155-1181, September.
  14. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-37, February.
  15. Juan Pablo Medina & Claudio Soto, 2005. "Oil Shocks and Monetary Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model for a Small Open Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 353, Central Bank of Chile.
  16. Luis Felipe Cespedes & Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2000. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," NBER Working Papers 7840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Rodrigo Caputo & Felipe Liendo & Juan Pablo Medina, 2006. "New Keynesian Models For Chile During The Inflation Targeting Regime: A Structural Approach," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 9(3), pages 73-95, December.
  18. Nicoletta Batini & Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman, 2008. "Optimal Exchange Rate Stabilization in a Dollarized Economy with Inflation Targets," Working Papers 2008-004, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  19. Frank Schorfheide, 2000. "Loss function-based evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 645-670.
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