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Chocs extérieurs et régimes monétaires en Asie du Sud-Est : une analyse DSGE

  • Ibrahima Sangaré

    ()

    (Larefi - Laboratoire d'analyse et de recherche en économie et finance internationales - Université Montesquieu - Bordeaux IV : EA2954)

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    Cet article compare les performances économiques et en termes de bien-être de quatre régimes monétaires (flottement pur, flottement dirigé, zone cible et change fixe) pour chacun des cinq pays fondateurs de l'ASEAN, à l'aide d'un modèle DSGE de petite économie ouverte. Le modèle intègre l'accélérateur financier et le phénomène de péché originel, et est estimé partiellement par la méthode bayésienne et calibré en utilisant les données de ces pays. Nous trouvons via l'analyse des propriétés de stabilisation et du bien-être qu'en face des chocs extérieurs, le change flexible est le meilleur régime pour chacun des pays étudiés, suivi des régimes intermédiaires et du change fixe. Nous montrons que ces résultats pourraient être affectés par le degré d'ouverture des économies, soulignant ainsi le rôle d'effet de substitution de demande.

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    Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number hal-00949973.

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    Date of creation: 19 Feb 2014
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    Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00949973
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