IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

The stability of money demand in China: Evidence from the ARDL model


  • Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi
  • Mohd, Siti Hamizah
  • Mansur M. Masih, A.


This study examines the demand for broad money (M2) in China using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration framework. The results based on the bounds testing procedure confirm that a stable, long-run relationship exists between M2 and its determinants: real income, inflation, foreign interest rates and stock prices. Importantly, our results reveal that stock prices have a significant wealth effect on long- and short-run broad money demand; its omission can lead to serious misspecifications in the money demand function (MDF). This finding is consistent with the notion that asset inflation (deflation) has systematic influence on the pattern of monetary aggregates.

Suggested Citation

  • Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Mohd, Siti Hamizah & Mansur M. Masih, A., 2009. "The stability of money demand in China: Evidence from the ARDL model," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 231-244, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:33:y:2009:i:3:p:231-244

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Massimo Caruso, 2001. "Stock prices and money velocity: a multi-country analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 651-672.
    2. Bijan B. Aghevli & Mohsin S. Khan & P. R. Narvekar & Brock K. Short, 1979. "Monetary Policy in Selected Asian Countries (La politique monétaire dans certains pays d'Asie) (La política monetaria de algunos países asiáticos seleccionados)," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(4), pages 775-824, December.
    3. Hafer R. W. & Kutan A. M., 1993. "Further Evidence on Money, Output, and Prices in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 701-709, September.
    4. Arize, Augustine C. & Malindretos, John & Shwiff, Steven S., 1999. "Structural breaks, cointegration, and speed of adjustment Evidence from 12 LDCs money demand," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 399-420, November.
    5. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-348, August.
    6. Emmanuel Anoruo, 2002. "Stability of the Nigerian M2 Money Demand Function in the SAP Period," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 14(3), pages 1-9.
    7. A. C. Arize & Malindretos John, 2000. "Does Inflation Variability Affect the Demand for Money in China? Evidence from Error-Correction Models," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 47-60.
    8. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    9. James Payne, 2003. "Post stabilization estimates of money demand in Croatia: error correction model using the bounds testing approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(16), pages 1723-1727.
    10. Chien-Chiang Lee & Mei-Se Chien, 2008. "Stability of money demand function revisited in China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(24), pages 3185-3197.
    11. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    12. Chen, Baizhu, 1997. "Long-Run Money Demand and Inflation in China," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 609-617, July.
    13. Qin, Duo & Quising, Pilipinas & He, Xinhua & Liu, Shiguo, 2005. "Modeling monetary transmission and policy in China," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 157-175, March.
    14. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
    15. John Thornton, 1998. "Real stock prices and the long-run demand for money in Germany," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(5), pages 513-517.
    16. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:14:y:2002:i:3:p:1-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Bohl, Martin T., 2000. "German monetary unification and the stability of the German M3 money demand function," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 203-208, February.
    18. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    19. Choudhry, Taufiq, 1996. "Real stock prices and the long-run money demand function: evidence from Canada and the USA," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, February.
    20. Wu, Chung-Shu & Lin, Jin-Lung & Tiao, George C. & Cho, David D., 2005. "Is money demand in Taiwan stable?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 327-346, March.
    21. Amir Kia, 2006. "Economic policies and demand for money: evidence from Canada," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(12), pages 1389-1407.
    22. Anders Rahbek & Rocco Mosconi, 1999. "Cointegration rank inference with stationary regressors in VAR models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 76-91.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Nikolaos Dritsakis, 2011. "Demand for Money in Hungary: An ARDL Approach," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 01-16, November.
    2. Muhammad Zia Ullah Khan & Muhammad Illyas & Muqqadas Rahman & Chaudhary Abdul Rahman, 2015. "Money Monetization and Economic Growth in Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 3(4), pages 184-192, April.
    3. Ahmad Baharumshah & Siew-Voon Soon, 2015. "Demand for broad money in Singapore: does wealth matter?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(3), pages 557-573, July.
    4. Ganegodage, K. Renuka & Rambaldi, Alicia N., 2014. "Economic consequences of war: Evidence from Sri Lanka," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 42-53.
    5. Lee, Chien Chiang & Chang, Chun Ping, 2012. "The Demand for Money in China: A Reassessment Using the Bounds Testing Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 74-94, March.
    6. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? Cointegrated VAR Versus Single Equation Techniques," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(4), pages 285-315.
    7. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? – Cointegrated VAR versus Single Equation Techniques," Ruhr Economic Papers 0171, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    8. repec:ksp:journ2:v:4:y:2017:i:1:p:66-74 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Muhammad Zia Ullah Khan & Chaudhary Abdul Rahman, 2015. "Money, Monetization and Economic Growth in Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 3(3), pages 95-104, March.
    10. repec:zbw:rwirep:0171 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Ganegodage, K. Renuka & Rambaldi, Alicia N., 2011. "The impact of education investment on Sri Lankan economic growth," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1491-1502.
    12. Koivu, Tuuli, 2012. "Monetary policy, asset prices and consumption in China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 307-325.
    13. Kumar, Saten, 2011. "Financial reforms and money demand: Evidence from 20 developing countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 323-334, September.
    14. Mehrotra, Aaron & Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2010. "Wealth effects and Russian money demand," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2010, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    15. Haider Mahmood & Mohammad Asif, 2016. "An empirical investigation of stability of money demand for GCC countries," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 11(3), pages 274-286.
    16. Ben Salha, Ousama & Jaidi, Zied, 2013. "Some new evidence on the determinants of money demand in developing countries – A case study of Tunisia," MPRA Paper 51788, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. repec:wyi:journl:002133 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. K. Azim Özdemir & Mesut Saygili, 2013. "Economic uncertainty and money demand stability in Turkey," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 40(3), pages 314-333, July.
    19. Umbreen IFTEKHAR & Dawood MAMOON & Muhammad S. HASSAN, 2017. "How Government Policy and Demographics affect Money Demand Function in Bangladesh," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 66-74, March.
    20. Taha, Roshaiza & Colombage, Sisira R.N. & Maslyuk, Svetlana & Nanthakumar, Loganathan, 2013. "Does financial system activity affect tax revenue in Malaysia? Bounds testing and causality approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 147-157.
    21. Zuo, Haomiao & Park, Sung Y., 2011. "Money demand in China and time-varying cointegration," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 330-343, September.
    22. Muhammad Aftab & Rubi Ahmad & Izlin Ismail & Mumtaz Ahmed, 2016. "Does exchange-rate uncertainty matter in the Malaysia–E.U. bilateral trade? An industry level investigation," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(3), pages 461-485, August.


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:33:y:2009:i:3:p:231-244. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.