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Coordination, Fair Treatment and Inflation Persistence

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  • John C. Driscoll
  • Steinar Holden

Abstract

Most wage-contracting models with rational expectations fail to replicate the persistence in inflation observed in the data. We argue that coordination problems and multiple equilibria are the keys to explaining inflation persistence. We develop a wage-contracting model in which workers are concerned about being treated fairly. This model generates a continuum of equilibria (consistent with a range for the rate of unemployment), where workers want to match the wage set by other workers. If workers' expectations are based on the past behavior of wage growth, these beliefs will be self-fulfilling and thus rational. Based on quarterly U.S. data over the period 1955-2000, we find evidence that inflation is more persistent between unemployment rates of 4.7 and 6.5 percent, than outside these bounds, as predicted by our model.

Suggested Citation

  • John C. Driscoll & Steinar Holden, 2002. "Coordination, Fair Treatment and Inflation Persistence," NBER Working Papers 9174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9174
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Steinar Holden, 2012. "Implications of insights from behavioral economics for macroeconomic models," IMK Working Paper 99-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    2. Steinar Holden, 2004. "Behavioural Macroeconomics and the Aggregate Supply Puzzle," Nordic Journal of Political Economy, Nordic Journal of Political Economy, vol. 30, pages 27-35.
    3. Christopher Bowdler & Luca Nunziata, 2007. "Inflation Adjustment and Labour Market Structures: Evidence from a Multi-country Study," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 109(3), pages 619-642, September.
    4. Seidel, Gerald, 2005. "Endogenous Inflation - The Role of Expectations and Strategic Interaction," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-14, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    5. Driscoll, John C. & Holden, Steinar, 2014. "Behavioral economics and macroeconomic models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 133-147.
    6. Geronikolaou, George & Spyromitros, Eleftherios & Tsintzos, Panagiotis, 2016. "Inflation persistence: The path of labor market structural reforms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 317-322.
    7. Kandil, Magda, 2005. "Money, interest, and prices: Some international evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 129-147.
    8. Seidel, Gerald, 2005. "Fair Behavior and Inflation Persistence," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-09, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    9. Seidel, Gerald, 2005. "Fair behavior and inflation persistence," Papers 05-09, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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