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Inflation persistence and relative contracting

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  • John C. Driscoll
  • Steinar Holden

Abstract

Macroeconomists have for some time been aware that the New Keynesian Phillips curve, though highly popular in the literature, cannot explain the persistence observed in actual inflation. We argue that one of the more prominent alternative formulations, the Fuhrer and Moore (1995) relative contracting model, is highly problematic. Fuhrer and Moore's 1995 formulation generates inflation persistence, but this is a consequence of their assuming that workers care about the past real wages of other workers. Making the more reasonable assumption that workers care about the current real wages of other workers, one obtains the standard formulation with no inflation persistence.

Suggested Citation

  • John C. Driscoll & Steinar Holden, 2003. "Inflation persistence and relative contracting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2003-29
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brayton, Flint & Levin, Andrew & Lyon, Ralph & Williams, John C., 1997. "The evolution of macro models at the Federal Reserve Board," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 43-81, December.
    2. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
    3. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    4. Flint Brayton & Peter A. Tinsley, 1996. "A guide to FRB/US: a macroeconomic model of the United States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    6. Bhaskar, V, 1990. "Wage Relativities and the Natural Range of Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(400), pages 60-66, Supplemen.
    7. John M. Roberts, 1998. "Inflation expectations and the transmission of monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Laurence Ball, 2000. "Near-rationality and inflation in two monetary regimes," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    9. Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-159.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Steinar Holden, 2012. "Implications of insights from behavioral economics for macroeconomic models," IMK Working Paper 99-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    2. Matthias Strifler & Thomas Beissinger, 2016. "Fairness Considerations in Labor Union Wage Setting – A Theoretical Analysis," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(3), pages 303-330, July.
    3. Knell, Markus & Stiglbauer, Alfred, 2009. "The impact of reference norms on inflation persistence when wages are staggered," Working Paper Series 1047, European Central Bank.
    4. Steinar Holden, 2004. "Behavioural Macroeconomics and the Aggregate Supply Puzzle," Nordic Journal of Political Economy, Nordic Journal of Political Economy, vol. 30, pages 27-35.
    5. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    6. Mohamed Safouane Ben Aïssa & Olivier Musy, 2011. "The Dynamic Properties Of Alternative Assumptions On Price Adjustment In New Keynesian Models," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(4), pages 353-384, October.
    7. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2007. "Modeling Inflation Dynamics: A Critical Review of Recent Research," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 155-170, February.
    8. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Bayraktar, Nihal, 2010. "Contracting models of the Phillips curve empirical estimates for middle-income countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 555-570, June.
    9. Christopher Bowdler & Luca Nunziata, 2007. "Inflation Adjustment and Labour Market Structures: Evidence from a Multi-country Study," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 109(3), pages 619-642, September.
    10. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 35-65, February.
    11. Seidel, Gerald, 2005. "Endogenous Inflation - The Role of Expectations and Strategic Interaction," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-14, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    12. repec:bla:labour:v:31:y:2017:i:2:p:153-173 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Driscoll, John C. & Holden, Steinar, 2014. "Behavioral economics and macroeconomic models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 133-147.
    14. Ravn, Morten O. & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín & Uuskula, Lenno, 2010. "Deep habits and the dynamic effects of monetary policy shocks," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 236-258, June.
    15. Dixon, Huw & Kara, Engin, 2006. "Understanding inflation persistence: a comparison of different models," Working Paper Series 672, European Central Bank.
    16. Seidel, Gerald, 2005. "Endogenous inflation : the role of expectations and strategic interaction," Papers 05-14, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    17. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min, 2007. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1163-1212, May.
    18. Seidel, Gerald, 2005. "Fair Behavior and Inflation Persistence," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-09, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    19. Niemann, S & Pichler, P & Sorger, G, 2009. "Inflation dynamics under optimal discretionary fiscal and monetary policies," Economics Discussion Papers 2898, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    20. Fabio Milani, 2005. "Adaptive Learning and Inflation Persistence," Working Papers 050607, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    21. Alex Ho, Wai-Yip & Yetman, James, 2008. "The long-run output-inflation trade-off with menu costs," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 261-273, December.
    22. Seidel, Gerald, 2005. "Fair behavior and inflation persistence," Papers 05-09, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.

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    Keywords

    Inflation (Finance);

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