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Interpreting the significance of lagged interest rate in estimated monetary policy rules

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  • William B. English
  • William R. Nelson
  • Brian P. Sack

Abstract

Many researchers have found that the lagged interest rate enters estimated monetary policy rules with overwhelming significance. However, a recent paper by Rudebusch (2002) argues that the lagged interest rate is not a fundamental component of the U.S. policy rule, and that its significance arises from the omission of serially correlated variables from the policy rule. This paper demonstrates that, contrary to Rudebusch's claims, these two hypotheses can be directly distinguished in the estimation of the policy rule. Our findings indicate that while serially correlated omitted variables may be present, the lagged interest rate enters the policy rule on its own right and plays an important role in describing the behavior of the federal funds rate.

Suggested Citation

  • William B. English & William R. Nelson & Brian P. Sack, 2002. "Interpreting the significance of lagged interest rate in estimated monetary policy rules," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2002-24
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. John M. Roberts, 2003. "Modeling aggregate investment: a fundamentalist approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Hans Dewachter, 2008. "Imperfect information, macroeconomic dynamics and the yield curve : an encompassing macro-finance model," Working Paper Research 144, National Bank of Belgium.
    3. Brian P. Sack, 2003. "A monetary policy rule based on nominal and inflation-indexed Treasury yields," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-07, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Rodrigo Caputo, 2004. "Habit formation and its implications for small open economies," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 11, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    5. Rodrigo Caputo, 2004. "Exchange Rates, Inflation and Monetary Policy Objectives in Open Economies: The Experience of Chile," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 298, Econometric Society.
    6. Owen F. Humpage & Sanchita Mukherjee, 2013. "Even keel and the Great Inflation," Working Paper 1315, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    7. Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong, 2009. "Testing the Monetary Policy Rule in the US: a Reconsideration of the Fed’s Behaviour," CEPR Discussion Papers 7575, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2003. "Taylor rules, omitted variables, and interest rate smoothing in the US," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 55-59, October.
    9. Rodrigo Caputo, 2009. "External Shocks and Monetary Policy. Does it Pay to Respond to Exchange Rate Desviations?," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines, vol. 24(1), pages 55-99, Junio.
    10. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael & Noy, Ilan, 2011. "Inflation Targeting and Real Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 712-724, May.
    11. Driffill, John & Rotondi, Zeno, 2007. "Inertia in Taylor Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 6570, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. René Lalonde, 2005. "Endogenous Central Bank Credibility in a Small Forward-Looking Model of the U.S. Economy," Staff Working Papers 05-16, Bank of Canada.
    13. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2002. "Squeezing the Interest Rate Smoothing Weight with a Hybrid Expectations Model," Macroeconomics 0211006, EconWPA.
    14. Zeno Rotondi & Giacomo Vaciago, 2003. "The reputation of a newborn central bank," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 56(224), pages 3-22.
    15. Qiong Li & Zhiwei Wang, 2010. "The Taylor rules and macroeconomic fluctuation in China: 1994–2006," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 5(2), pages 232-253, June.
    16. Helle Bunzel & Walter Enders, 2010. "The Taylor Rule and "Opportunistic" Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(5), pages 931-949, August.
    17. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2004. "Describing the Fed's conduct with simple Taylor rules: is interest rate smoothing important?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 12, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    18. Jean-Philippe Cayen & Marc-André Gosselin & Sharon Kozicki, 2009. "Estimating DSGE-Model-Consistent Trends for Use in Forecasting," Staff Working Papers 09-35, Bank of Canada.
    19. Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2003. "Interest rate rules and multiple equilibria in the small open economy," International Finance Discussion Papers 785, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Schäfer, Benjamin, 2016. "Monetary union with sticky prices and direct spillover channels," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 99-118.

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    Keywords

    Interest rates ; Monetary policy;

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