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What do robust policies look like for open economy inflation targeters?



Typical New Keynesian open economy models suggest a limited response to the exchange rate. This paper examines the role of the open economy in determining robust rules when the central bank fears various model misspecification errors. The paper calibrates a hybrid New Keynesian model to broadly fit the economies of three archetypal open economy inflation targeters - Australia, Canada, and New Zealand - and seeks robust time-consistent policy. We find that policies robust to model misspecification react more aggressively to not only the exchange rate, but also inflation, the output gap and their associated shocks. This result generalizes to the context of a flexible inflation targeting central bank that cares about the volatility of the real exchange rate. However, when the central bank places only a small weight on interest rate smoothing and fears misspecification in only exchange rate determination, a more cautious policy is recommended for all but an exchange rate shock. It is also shown that the benefits of an exchange rate channel far outweigh the concomitant costs of uncertain exchange rate determination.

Suggested Citation

  • Kirdan Lees, 2006. "What do robust policies look like for open economy inflation targeters?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2006/08

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Kenneth West, 2003. "Monetary policy and the volatility of real exchange rates in New Zealand," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 175-196.
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    14. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Optimal Monetary Policy in Open versus Closed Economies: An Integrated Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 248-252, May.
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    18. Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2004. "Solution of macromodels with Hansen-Sargent robust policies: some extensions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 2367-2397, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Richard Dennis & Kai Leitemo & Ulf Soderstrom, 2006. "Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy with a Preference for Robustness," Working Papers 316, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.

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    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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