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Règle du taux d'intérêt optimale, prix des actions et taux d'inflation anticipé : une étude de la stabilité macroéconomique
[Optimal interest rate rule, asset prices and expected inflation rate : a study of the macroeconomic stability]

  • Dai, Meixing
  • Sidiropoulos, Moïse

Cet article étudie la stabilité macroéconomique lorsque la Banque Centrale intègre dans sa règle du taux d'intérêt optimale les cours boursiers. Nous montrons que lorsque la Banque Centrale a une forte aversion pour l'inflation en attribuant un poids important à l'objectif de l'inflation par rapport à celui de l'output (le cas d'un banquier « conservateur » au sens de Rogoff), le système économique risque d'être instable. La présence du prix des actions dans la règle du taux d'intérêt optimale de la Banque Centrale n'est pas à l'origine de l'instabilité. (English)This paper examines the macroeconomic stability when monetary authorities include asset prices in their optimal interest rate rule. We show that when the Central Bank has a strong inflationary aversion by giving more important weight to inflation target relative to output target (the case of a "conservative" central banker according to Rogoff), the economy is likely to be unstable. The presence of the asset prices in Central Bank's optimal interest rate rule is not a reason of instability.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 14401.

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Date of creation: Mar 2002
Date of revision: Jun 2003
Publication status: Published in Économie Appliquée 6.4(2003): pp. 115-140
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:14401
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  16. DURRE, Alain, 2001. "Would it Be Optimal for Central Banks to Include Asset Prices in Their Loss Function ?," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2001013, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
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  18. Andrew G. Haldane & Nicoletta Batini, 1998. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 6543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Carl E. Walsh, 2002. "Teaching Inflation Targeting: An Analysis for Intermediate Macro," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 333-346, December.
  20. McCallum, Bennett T, 1980. "Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Stabilization Policy: An Overview," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(4), pages 716-46, November.
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