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Inflation-targeting under a Managed Exchange Rate: the Case of the Chinese Central Bank

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  • Meixing Dai

Abstract

In 2004, the People's Bank of China (PBC) is reported to have abandoned the quantity of money as its intermediate goal and to adopt some elements of the apparatus of inflation targeting, without giving up the managed exchange rate regime for the renminbi (RMB), the Chinese currency. We show in this paper, using a dynamic setting, that partially implementing the apparatus of inflation targeting by the PBC to improve the performance of monetary policy encounters various difficulties from out-of-equilibrium dynamics to macro-economic and financial instability. In this context, some macro-economic measures can be helpful for reducing disequilibrium. Further development of internal monetary and financial markets and assigning balanced weights by the PBC to inflation and output targets are necessary conditions for the regime to be stable.

Suggested Citation

  • Meixing Dai, 2006. "Inflation-targeting under a Managed Exchange Rate: the Case of the Chinese Central Bank," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 199-219.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:jocebs:v:4:y:2006:i:3:p:199-219
    DOI: 10.1080/14765280600995579
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brandt, Loren & Zhu, Xiaodong, 2001. "Soft budget constraint and inflation cycles: a positive model of the macro-dynamics in China during transition," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 437-457, April.
    2. Cargill, Thomas F. & Parker, Elliott, 2004. "Price deflation, money demand, and monetary policy discontinuity: a comparative view of Japan, China, and the United States," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 125-147, March.
    3. Adam Gersl & Tomás Holub, 2006. "Foreign Exchange Interventions Under Inflation Targeting: The Czech Experience," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(4), pages 475-491, October.
    4. Dai, Meixing & Sidiropoulos, Moïse, 2002. "Règle du taux d'intérêt optimale, prix des actions et taux d'inflation anticipé : une étude de la stabilité macroéconomique
      [Optimal interest rate rule, asset prices and expected inflation rate : a
      ," MPRA Paper 14401, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2003.
    5. Zhang, Yin & Wan, Guang Hua, 2002. "Household consumption and monetary policy in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 27-52.
    6. Bennett, John & David Dixon, Huw, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Credit in China: A Theoretical Analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 297-314, April.
    7. Barry Eichengreen, 2006. "Can Emerging Markets Float? Should They Inflation Target?," Chapters,in: Monetary Integration and Dollarization, chapter 8 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Ivan Roberts & Rod Tyers, 2003. "China's Exchange Rate Policy: The Case for Greater Flexibility," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 17(2), pages 155-184, June.
    9. Øistein RØisland & Ragnar Torvik, 2003. "Optimum Currency Areas Under Inflation Targeting," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 99-118, April.
    10. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in China," Working Papers 2005-01, CEPII research center.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dai, Meixing, 2011. "Motivations and strategies for a real revaluation of the Yuan," MPRA Paper 30440, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Meixing Dai, 2013. "In search of an optimal strategy for yuan’s real revaluation," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 29-46, February.
    3. Dai, Meixing, 2007. "The design of a ‘two-pillar’ monetary policy strategy," MPRA Paper 14403, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2009.
    4. Aaron Mehrotra & José R Sánchez-Fung, 2010. "China's Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 52(4), pages 497-514, December.
    5. Meixing DAI, 2009. "On the role of money growth targeting under inflation targeting regime," Working Papers of BETA 2009-11, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    6. Fredj Jawadi & Sushanta K. Mallick & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Monetary Policy Rules in the BRICS: How Important is Nonlinearity?," NIPE Working Papers 18/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation targeting; renminbi (RMB); managed exchange rate; macro-economic and financial instability; JEL C LASSIFICATION : E52; E58; F41;

    JEL classification:

    • C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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