Don't Raise the Retirement Age! An Experiment on Opposition to Pension Reforms and East-West Differences in Germany
For policy reforms to increase a society's welfare, reliable information on people's prefer-ences and expectations is crucial. Representative opinion polls, often involving simplified questions about the complex topics under debate, are an important source of information for both policy-makers and the public. Do people's answers to these poll questions reliably reflect their preferences and expectations, or does fundamental, undiscriminating opposition to reforms distort them? We address this question in the context of a recent German pension reform which raised the statutory retirement age by two years to age 67. By introducing an experiment into a representative household survey, we are able to disentangle expectations of work ability at retirement and fundamental opposition. Our results show that expected work ability declines substantially with increasing target age (63, 65, or 67 years). Answers from West German respondents reflect their current life situation as well as individual health and other risk factors. However, a fundamental opposition to reforms of the welfare state appears to strongly affect responses from East German households.
|Date of creation:||2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
Fax: +49 (89) 985369
Web page: http://www.cesifo.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ockenfels, Axel & Weimann, Joachim, 1999. "Types and patterns: an experimental East-West-German comparison of cooperation and solidarity," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 275-287, February.
- Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra Dwyer & Wayne-Roy Gayle & Thomas Muench, 2008.
"Expectations in micro data: rationality revisited,"
Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 381-416, March.
- Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra S. Dwyer & Wayne-Roy Gayle & Thomas J. Muench, 2003. "Expectations in Micro Data: Rationality Revisited," Working Papers wp059, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
- Hugo Benitez-Silva & Debra S. Dwyer & Wayne-Roy Gayle & Tom Muench, 2005. "Expectations in Micro Data: Rationality Revisited," Department of Economics Working Papers 05-04, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
- Butler, Monika, 2000. "The political feasibility of pension reform options: the case of Switzerland," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 389-416, March.
- Tito Boeri & Axel Boersch-Supan & Guido Tabellini, 2002. "Pension Reforms and the Opinions of European Citizens," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 396-401, May.
- Cukierman, Alex, 1991. " Asymmetric Information and the Electoral Momentum of Public Opinion Polls," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 70(2), pages 181-213, May.
- Daniel Schunk, 2008. "A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for multiple imputation in large surveys," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer, vol. 92(1), pages 101-114, February.
- Alicia H. Munnell & Mauricio Soto & Alex Golub-Sass, 2008. "Will People Be Healthy Enough to Work Longer?," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2008-11, Center for Retirement Research, revised Aug 2008.
- Weiss M. & Börsch-Supan A., 2013.
"Productivity and age: Evidence from work teams at the assembly line,"
ROA Research Memorandum
009, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
- Weiss, Matthias & Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2011. "Productivity and age: Evidence from work teams at the assembly line," Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48719, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Weiss M. & B?rsch-Supan A., 2013. "Productivity and age: Evidence from work teams at the assembly line," Research Memorandum 029, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
- Börsch-Supan, Axel & Weiss, Matthias, 2011. "Productivity and age: Evidence from work teams at the assembly line," MEA discussion paper series 07148, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
- Boeri, Tito & Tabellini, Guido, 2005.
"Does Information Increase Political Support for Pension Reform?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5319, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Tito Boeri & Guido Tabellini, 2012. "Does information increase political support for pension reform?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 327-362, January.
- Tito Boeri & Guido Tabellini, 2005. "Does Information Increase Political Support for Pension Reform?," Levine's Working Paper Archive 784828000000000244, David K. Levine.
- Adams, Peter & Hurd, Michael D. & McFadden, Daniel & Merrill, Angela & Ribeiro, Tiago, 2003.
"Healthy, wealthy, and wise? Tests for direct causal paths between health and socioeconomic status,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 3-56, January.
- Peter Adams & Michael D. Hurd & Daniel L. McFadden & Angela Merrill & Tiago Ribeiro, 2004. "Healthy, Wealthy, and Wise? Tests for Direct Causal Paths between Health and Socioeconomic Status," NBER Chapters, in: Perspectives on the Economics of Aging, pages 415-526 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sendhil Mullainathan & Marianne Bertrand, 2001. "Do People Mean What They Say? Implications for Subjective Survey Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 67-72, May.
- Diamond, P. A. & Mirrlees, J. A., 1978.
"A model of social insurance with variable retirement,"
Journal of Public Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 295-336, December.
- P. A. Diamond & J. A. Mirrlees, 1977. "A Model of Social Insurance With Variable Retirement," Working papers 210, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Owen O'Donnell & Federica Teppa & Eddy van Doorslaer, 2008. "Can subjective survival expectations explain retirement behaviour?," DNB Working Papers 188, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Gary Burtless & Joseph F. Quinn, 2000. "Retirement Trends and Policies to Encourage Work Among Older Americans," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 436, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Monika Bütler, 2002. "The Political Feasibility of Increasing the Retirement Age: Lessons from a Ballot on the Female Retirement Age," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 349-365, August.
- Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Measuring Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1329-1376, 09.
- Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2004. "MIND THE GAP: The Effectiveness of Incentives to Boost Retirement Saving in Europe," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 07-27, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
- Axel Börsch-Supan, 2004. "Mind the Gap: The Effectiveness of Incentives to boost Retirement Saving in Europe," MEA discussion paper series 04052, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
- Kathleen McGarry, 2004. "Health and Retirement: Do Changes in Health Affect Retirement Expectations?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 39(3).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2752. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Julio Saavedra)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.