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The Political Feasibility of Increasing Retirement Age: Lessons from a Ballot on Female Retirement Age

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  • Butler, Monika

Abstract

In 1998, the Swiss voters approved of an increase in female retirement age from 62 to 64. The referendum, being on a single issue only, offers a unique opportunity to explore the political feasibility of pension reforms and to apply theoretical models of life-cycle decision making. Estimates carried out with municipality data suggest that the outcome of the vote conforms relatively well with predictions drawn from a theoretical simulation study. There are, however, surprising gender differences even in married couples. Young agents, married middle-aged and all elderly men favour an increase in female retirement age, while middle-aged and elderly women strongly oppose it. Richer communities and those with a high proportion of self-employed or a low fraction of blue-collar workers are more likely to opt for a higher retirement age. Ideological preferences and regional differences also play a considerable role.

Suggested Citation

  • Butler, Monika, 2001. "The Political Feasibility of Increasing Retirement Age: Lessons from a Ballot on Female Retirement Age," CEPR Discussion Papers 2780, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2780
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    Cited by:

    1. Piera Bello & Vincenzo Galasso, 2021. "The politics of ageing and retirement: Evidence from Swiss referenda," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 75(1), pages 3-18, January.
    2. Juan Lacomba & Francisco Lagos, 2010. "Postponing the legal retirement age," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(3), pages 357-369, July.
    3. Hanel, Barbara & Riphahn, Regina T., 2006. "Financial Incentives and the Timing of Retirement: Evidence from Switzerland," IZA Discussion Papers 2492, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Hanel, Barbara & Riphahn, Regina T., 2012. "The timing of retirement — New evidence from Swiss female workers," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 718-728.
    5. Lars P. Feld & Justina A.V. Fischer & Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2010. "The Effect Of Direct Democracy On Income Redistribution: Evidence For Switzerland," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(4), pages 817-840, October.
    6. Benjamin Bittschi & Berthold U. Wigger, 2019. "On the Political Feasibility of Increasing the Legal Retirement Age," CESifo Working Paper Series 7492, CESifo.
    7. Casper van Ewijk & Erik Canton & Paul Tang, 2004. "Ageing and international capital flows," CPB Document 43.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    8. Ju. A. Zelikova, 2022. "Social Justice and Social Reform under Condition of Population Aging. Systematic Literature Review," Administrative Consulting, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. North-West Institute of Management., issue 1.
    9. Feld, Lars P. & Fischer, Justina A.V. & Kirchgaessner, Gebhard, 2007. "The Effect of Direct Democratic Institutions on Income Redistribution: Evidence for Switzerland," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 689, Stockholm School of Economics.
    10. Casper van Ewijk & Erik Canton & Paul Tang, 2004. "Ageing and international capital flows," CPB Document 43, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    11. Beatrice Scheubel & Daniel Schunk & Joachim Winter, 2009. "Don't Raise the Retirement Age! An Experiment on Opposition to Pension Reforms and East-West Differences in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 2752, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Social security reforms; (female) retirement age; Life-cycle decision making;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy

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