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Default, liquidity and crises: an econometric framework

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  • Monfort, A.
  • Renne, J-P.

Abstract

In this paper, we present a general discrete-time affine framework aimed at jointly modeling yield curves associated with different debtors. The underlying fixed-income securities may differ in terms of credit quality and/or in terms of liquidity. The risk factors follow conditionally Gaussian processes, with drifts and variance-covariance matrices that are subject to regime shifts described by a Markov chain with (historical) non-homogenous transition probabilities. While flexible, the model remains tractable. In particular, bond prices are given by quasi-explicit formulas. Various numerical examples are proposed, including a sector-contagion model and credit-rating modeling.

Suggested Citation

  • Monfort, A. & Renne, J-P., 2011. "Default, liquidity and crises: an econometric framework," Working papers 340, Banque de France.
  • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:340
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Juan Ángel García & Ricardo Gimeno, 2014. "Flight-to-liquidity flows in the euro area sovereign debt crisis," Working Papers 1429, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    2. Monfort, A. & Renne, J-P., 2011. "Credit and liquidity risks in euro area sovereign yield curves," Working papers 352, Banque de France.
    3. Thomas Laubach, 2011. "Fiscal Policy and Interest Rates: The Role of Sovereign Default Risk," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 7-30.
    4. Gouriéroux, C. & Monfort, A. & Renne, J.P., 2014. "Pricing default events: Surprise, exogeneity and contagion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 397-411.
    5. Ferrara, Laurent & Marsilli, Clément & Ortega, Juan-Pablo, 2014. "Forecasting growth during the Great Recession: is financial volatility the missing ingredient?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, pages 44-50.
    6. Schuster, Philipp & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese, 2015. "Limits to arbitrage and the term structure of bond illiquidity premiums," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 143-159.
    7. Christian Gouriéroux & Alain Monfort & Jean-Paul Renne, 2013. "Pricing Default Events : Surprise, Exogeneity and Contagion," Working Papers 2013-03, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    8. Alain Monfort & Jean-Paul Renne, 2011. "Credit and Liquidity Risks in Euro-area Sovereign Yield Curves," Working Papers 2011-26, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit risk; liquidity risk; term structure; affine model; regime switching; Car process.;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

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