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Is recovery risk priced?

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  • Schläfer, Timo
  • Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese

Abstract

Recovery risk to explain corporate debt premia has not received much attention so far, most likely due to the difficulties around decomposing the expected loss. We exploit the fact that differently-ranking debt instruments of the same issuer face identical default risk but different default-conditional recovery rates. This allows us to isolate implied recovery under the T-forward measure without any of the rigid assumptions employed by prior studies. We find a pronounced systematic component in recovery rates for which investors should receive a premium. Comparisons to physical realizations show that the premium is quite time-stable and similar for different debt seniorities.

Suggested Citation

  • Schläfer, Timo & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese, 2014. "Is recovery risk priced?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 257-270.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:40:y:2014:i:c:p:257-270
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.11.033
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    2. Lily Y. Liu, 2017. "Estimating Loss Given Default from CDS under Weak Identification," Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers RPA 17-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    3. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    4. Jobst, Rainer & Kellner, Ralf & Rösch, Daniel, 2020. "Bayesian loss given default estimation for European sovereign bonds," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1073-1091.
    5. Edwin O. Fischer & Lisa-Maria Kampl & Ines Wöckl, 2020. "On the Valuation and Analysis of Risky Debt: A Practical Approach Using Raging Migrations," Working Paper Series, Social and Economic Sciences 2020-01, Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences, Karl-Franzens-University Graz.
    6. Nazemi, Abdolreza & Baumann, Friedrich & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2022. "Intertemporal defaulted bond recoveries prediction via machine learning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 297(3), pages 1162-1177.
    7. Jansen, Jeroen & Das, Sanjiv R. & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2018. "Local volatility and the recovery rate of credit default swaps," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 1-29.
    8. Albert Cohen & Nick Costanzino, 2017. "Bond and CDS Pricing via the Stochastic Recovery Black-Cox Model," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-28, April.
    9. Castellano, Rosella & Corallo, Vincenzo & Morelli, Giacomo, 2022. "Structural estimation of counterparty credit risk under recovery risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    10. Ms. Luisa Zanforlin & Nobuyuki Kanazawa, 2014. "Market Signals and the Cost of Credit Risk Protection: An Analysis of CDS Settlement Auctions," IMF Working Papers 2014/239, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Masahiko Egami & Rusudan Kevkhishvili, 2020. "Post-Last Exit Time Process and its Application to Loss-Given-Default Distribution," Papers 2009.00868, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit risk; Recovery risk; Implied recovery rates; Risk premia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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