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The Economic Role of Jumps and Recovery Rates in the Market for Corporate Default Risk

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  • Schneider, Paul
  • Sögner, Leopold
  • Veža, Tanja

Abstract

Using an extensive cross section of U.S. corporate credit default swaps (CDSs), this paper offers an economic understanding of implied loss given default (LGD) and jumps in default risk. We formulate and underpin empirical stylized facts about CDS spreads, which are then reproduced in our affine intensity-based jump-diffusion model. Implied LGD is well identified, with obligors possessing substantial tangible assets expected to recover more. Sudden increases in the default risk of investment-grade obligors are higher relative to speculative grade. The probability of structural migration to default is low for investment-grade and heavily regulated obligors because investors fear distress rather through rare but devastating events.

Suggested Citation

  • Schneider, Paul & Sögner, Leopold & Veža, Tanja, 2011. "The Economic Role of Jumps and Recovery Rates in the Market for Corporate Default Risk," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(06), pages 1517-1547, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:45:y:2011:i:06:p:1517-1547_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Lily Y., 2017. "Estimating Loss Given Default from CDS under Weak Identification," Risk and Policy Analysis Unit Working Paper RPA 17-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    2. Brunella Bruno & Giacomo Nocera & Andrea Resti, 2015. "The credibility of European banks’ risk-weighted capital: structural differences or national segmentations?," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1509, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    3. Trapp, Monika & Wewel, Claudio, 2012. "Transatlantic systemic risk," CFR Working Papers 12-10, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    4. Zinna, Gabriele, 2013. "Sovereign default risk premia: Evidence from the default swap market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 15-35.
    5. Marcin Jaskowski & Michael McAleer, 2012. "Estimating Implied Recovery Rates from the Term Structure of CDS Spreads," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2012-28, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    6. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    7. Trapp, Monika & Wewel, Claudio, 2013. "Transatlantic systemic risk," CFR Working Papers 12-10 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    8. Arakelyan, Armen & Rubio, Gonzalo & Serrano, Pedro, 2015. "The reward for trading illiquid maturities in credit default swap markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 376-389.
    9. Ratner, Mitchell & Chiu, Chih-Chieh (Jason), 2013. "Hedging stock sector risk with credit default swaps," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 18-25.
    10. Kamga, Merlin Kuate & Wilde, Christian, 2017. "Liquidity premia in CDS markets," SAFE Working Paper Series 173, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
    11. Trapp, Monika & Wewel, Claudio, 2013. "Transatlantic systemic risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4241-4255.
    12. Schläfer, Timo & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese, 2014. "Is recovery risk priced?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 257-270.
    13. Enrico Laghi & Michele Di Marcantonio & Eugenio D'Amico, 2014. "Estimating credit default swap spreads using accounting data, market quotes and credit ratings: the European Banks Case," FINANCIAL REPORTING, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2014(2-3-4), pages 59-81.
    14. Mutl, Jan & Sögner, Leopold, 2013. "Parameter Estimation and Inference with Spatial Lags and Cointegration," Economics Series 296, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    15. Patrycja Chodnicka & Katarzyna Niewinska, 2015. "Financial Risk in Polish Companies During the Global Economic Crisis of 2007–2008 with Particular Emphasis on Evaluation of the Use of Reserve Debt Capacity (Ryzyko finansowania polskich przedsiebiors," Problemy Zarzadzania, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 13(55), pages 197-219.
    16. Kallberg, Jarl & Liu, Crocker H. & Villupuram, Sriram, 2013. "Preferred stock: Some insights into capital structure," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 77-86.
    17. Díaz, Antonio & Groba, Jonatan & Serrano, Pedro, 2013. "What drives corporate default risk premia? Evidence from the CDS market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 529-563.

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