Options-based structural model estimation of bond recovery rates
The paper demonstrates that a real options structural model of borrower-creditor debt re-negotiations can help explain the cross-sectional variability of losses on defaulted debt securities. The explanatory power of this approach can be improved even further via a system of equations that incorporates additional information by jointly estimating the market values of debt and equity. Empirical tests with a large number of corporate defaults confirm the usefulness of this method. Moreover, higher volatility and lower discount rates around business cycle turning points can result in stakeholders waiting relatively longer for additional returns from defaulted debt. Such optimal stopping behavior based on a real options model mitigates the reduction in face value of debt but can prolong the duration of financial distress.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Merton, Robert C., 1973.
"On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates,"
684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
- John Moore & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, .
1995-5, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
- Murray Carlson & Adlai Fisher & Ron Giammarino, 2006. "Corporate Investment and Asset Price Dynamics: Implications for SEO Event Studies and Long-Run Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1009-1034, 06.
- Max Bruche & Carlos González Aguado, 2006.
"Recovery Rates, Default Probabilities And The Credit Cycle,"
- Bruche, Max & González-Aguado, Carlos, 2010. "Recovery rates, default probabilities, and the credit cycle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 754-764, April.
- Carlos González-Aguado & Max Bruche, 2006. "Recovery Rates, Default Probabilities and the Credit Cycle," FMG Discussion Papers dp572, Financial Markets Group.
- Max Bruche & Carlos Gonzalez-Aguado, 2006. "Recovery rates, default probabilities and the credit cycle," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24524, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Jon Frye, 2000. "Depressing recoveries," Emerging Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Oct.
- Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. " A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
- Oliver Hart & John Moore, 1997.
"Default and Renegotiation: A Dynamic Model of Debt,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1792, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Oliver Hart & John Moore, 1998. "Default And Renegotiation: A Dynamic Model Of Debt," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-41, February.
- Oliver Hart & John Moore, 1997. "Default and Renegotiation: A Dynamic Model of Debt," NBER Working Papers 5907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hart, O. & Moore, J., 1989. "Default And Renegotiation: A Dynamic Model Of Debt," Working papers 520, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Oliver Hart & John Moore, 1997. "Default and Renegotiation: A Dynamic Model of Debt," STICERD - Theoretical Economics Paper Series /1997/321, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
- Daniel Covitz & Song Han, 2004. "An empirical analysis of bond recovery rates: exploring a structural view of default," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-10, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1992. " Liquidation Values and Debt Capacity: A Market Equilibrium Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1343-66, September.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
- Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-24, January.
- Geske, Robert, 1979. "The valuation of compound options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 63-81, March.
- Viral Acharya & Jing-zhi Huang & Marti Subrahmanyam & Rangarajan Sundaram, 2006.
"When does Strategic Debt-service Matter?,"
Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 363-378, October.
- Jarrow, Robert A & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1995. " Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 53-85, March.
- Anari, Ali & Kolari, James & Mason, Joseph, 2005. "Bank Asset Liquidation and the Propagation of the U.S. Great Depression," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(4), pages 753-73, August.
- Jon Frye, 2000. "Collateral damage detected," Emerging Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Sep.
- Joseph R. Mason, 2005. "A Real Options Approach to Bankruptcy Costs: Evidence from Failed Commercial Banks During the 1990s," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(4), pages 1523-1554, July.
- Charles W. Calomiris & Joseph R. Mason, 2003. "Fundamentals, Panics, and Bank Distress During the Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1615-1647, December.
- Sudheer Chava & Catalina Stefanescu & Stuart Turnbull, 2011. "Modeling the Loss Distribution," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(7), pages 1267-1287, July.
- Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
- Acharya, Viral V. & Bharath, Sreedhar T. & Srinivasan, Anand, 2007. "Does industry-wide distress affect defaulted firms? Evidence from creditor recoveries," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(3), pages 787-821, September.
- Xin Guo & Robert A. Jarrow & Yan Zeng, 2009. "Modeling The Recovery Rate In A Reduced Form Model," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 73-97.
- Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 5474.
- Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, 09.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jfinin:v:21:y:2012:i:3:p:473-506. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.