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Quantifying Liquidity and Default Risks of Corporate Bonds over the Business Cycle

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  • Hui Chen
  • Rui Cui
  • Zhiguo He
  • Konstantin Milbradt

Abstract

We develop a structural credit risk model to examine how the interactions of liquidity and default risk affect corporate bond pricing. By explicitly modeling debt rollover and by endogenizing the holding costs via collateralized financing, our model generates rich links between liquidity risk and default risk. The introduction of macroeconomic risks helps the model capture realistic time variation in default risk premia and the default-liquidity spiral over the business cycle. Across different credit ratings, our calibrated model can simultaneously match the average default probabilities, credit spreads, and bond liquidity measures including Bond-CDS spreads and bid-ask spreads in the data. Through a structural decomposition, we show that the interactions between liquidity and default risk account for 25∼40% of the observed credit spreads and up to 55% of the credit spread changes over the business cycle. As an application, we use this framework to quantitatively evaluate the effects of liquidity-provision policies for the corporate bond market.

Suggested Citation

  • Hui Chen & Rui Cui & Zhiguo He & Konstantin Milbradt, 2014. "Quantifying Liquidity and Default Risks of Corporate Bonds over the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 20638, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20638
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hui Chen & Yu Xu & Jun Yang, 2012. "Systematic Risk, Debt Maturity, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," NBER Working Papers 18367, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chris Kenyon & Mourad Berrahoui & Benjamin Poncet, 2017. "Counterparty Trading Limits Revisited:CSAs, IM, SwapAgent(r), from PFE to PFL," Papers 1710.03161, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2018.
    2. Chunjing Wang & Jinming Qu, 2020. "Analysis of the Pro-cyclical Behavior of Credit Spread in Chinese Bond Market," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 10(4), pages 1-8.
    3. Helberg, Stig & Lindset, Snorre, 2016. "Risk protection from risky collateral: Evidence from the euro bond market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 193-213.
    4. Leal, Diego & Stanhouse, Bryan & Stock, Duane, 2020. "Estimating the term structure of corporate bond liquidity premiums: An analysis of default free bank bonds," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    5. Anton Tsoy, 2016. "Liquidity and Prices in Decentralized Markets with Almost Public Information," 2016 Meeting Papers 8, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Xia, Xin & Gan, Liu, 2020. "SME financing with new credit guarantee contracts over the business cycle," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 515-538.
    7. Samir Kadiric & Arthur Korus, 2019. "The effects of Brexit on credit spreads: Evidence from UK and Eurozone corporate bond markets," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 65-102, March.
    8. Zhiguo He & Konstantin Milbradt, 2016. "Dynamic Debt Maturity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(10), pages 2677-2736.
    9. Samir Kadiric & Arthur Korus, 2018. "Effects of Brexit on Corporate Yield Spreads: Evidence from UK and Eurozone Corporate Bond Markets," EIIW Discussion paper disbei251, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    10. Yang Liu & Amir Yaron & Lukas Schmid, 2019. "The Risks of Safe Assets," 2019 Meeting Papers 1418, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Weill, Pierre-Olivier, 2020. "The search theory of OTC markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 14847, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Nishihara, Michi & Shibata, Takashi, 2019. "Liquidation, fire sales, and acquirers’ private information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    13. Shi, Zhan, 2019. "Time-varying ambiguity, credit spreads, and the levered equity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(3), pages 617-646.
    14. Choi, Jaewon & Dasgupta, Amil & Oh, Ji Yeol Jimmy, 2019. "Bond Funds and Credit Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 14134, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Michi Nishihara & Takashi Shibata, 2019. "The effects of asset liquidity on dynamic bankruptcy decisions," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 19-12, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    16. Della Seta, Marco & Morellec, Erwan & Zucchi, Francesca, 2020. "Short-term debt and incentives for risk-taking," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 179-203.
    17. Albert Lee Chun & Ethan Namvar & Xiaoxia Ye & Fan Yu, 2019. "Modeling Municipal Yields With (and Without) Bond Insurance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(8), pages 3694-3713, August.
    18. Song Han & Hao Zhou, 2016. "Effects of Liquidity on the Non-Default Component of Corporate Yield Spreads: Evidence from Intraday Transactions Data," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(03), pages 1-49, September.
    19. Nishihara, Michi & Shibata, Takashi, 2021. "The effects of asset liquidity on dynamic sell-out and bankruptcy decisions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 288(3), pages 1017-1035.
    20. Abudy, Menachem Meni & Raviv, Alon, 2016. "How much can illiquidity affect corporate debt yield spread?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 58-69.
    21. Roland Füss & Thomas Gehrig & Philipp B. Rindler, 2016. "Changing Risk Perception and the Time-Varying Price of Risk," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(4), pages 1549-1585.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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