IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocawp/12-27.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Systematic Risk, Debt Maturity and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads

Author

Listed:
  • Hui Chen
  • Yu Xu
  • Jun Yang

Abstract

We build a dynamic capital structure model to study the link between systematic risk exposure and debt maturity, as well as their joint impact on the term structure of credit spreads. Our model allows for time variation and lumpiness in the maturity structure. Relative to short-term debt, long-term debt is less prone to rollover risks, but its illiquidity raises the costs of financing. The risk premium embedded in the bankruptcy costs causes firms with high systematic risk to favour longer debt maturity, as well as a more stable maturity structure over the business cycle. Pro-cyclical debt maturity amplifies the impact of aggregate shocks on the term structure of credit spreads, especially for firms with high leverage or high beta, and for firms with a large amount of long-term debt maturing when the aggregate shock arrives. However, endogenous maturity choice can also reduce and even reverse the effect of rollover risk on credit spreads. We provide empirical evidence for the model predictions on both debt maturity and credit spreads.

Suggested Citation

  • Hui Chen & Yu Xu & Jun Yang, 2012. "Systematic Risk, Debt Maturity and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Staff Working Papers 12-27, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:12-27
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/wp2012-27.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jean Helwege & Christopher M. Turner, 1999. "The Slope of the Credit Yield Curve for Speculative-Grade Issuers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1869-1884, October.
    2. Long Chen & David A. Lesmond & Jason Wei, 2007. "Corporate Yield Spreads and Bond Liquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 119-149, February.
    3. Isil Erel & Brandon Julio & Woojin Kim & Michael S. Weisbach, 2012. "Macroeconomic Conditions and Capital Raising," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, pages 341-376.
    4. Leland, Hayne E & Toft, Klaus Bjerre, 1996. " Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 987-1019, July.
    5. Ilya A. Strebulaev, 2007. "Do Tests of Capital Structure Theory Mean What They Say?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1747-1787, August.
    6. Harjoat S. Bhamra & Lars-Alexander Kuehn & Ilya A. Strebulaev, 2010. "The Aggregate Dynamics of Capital Structure and Macroeconomic Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, pages 4187-4241.
    7. Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2005. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2213-2253, October.
    8. Long Chen & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2009. "On the Relation Between the Credit Spread Puzzle and the Equity Premium Puzzle," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, pages 3367-3409.
    9. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2004. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1481-1509, August.
    10. Hui Chen, 2010. "Macroeconomic Conditions and the Puzzles of Credit Spreads and Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(6), pages 2171-2212, December.
    11. Pierre Collin-Dufresne, 2001. "Do Credit Spreads Reflect Stationary Leverage Ratios?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1929-1957, October.
    12. Sreedhar T. Bharath & Tyler Shumway, 2008. "Forecasting Default with the Merton Distance to Default Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, pages 1339-1369.
    13. Amy K. Edwards & Lawrence E. Harris & Michael S. Piwowar, 2007. "Corporate Bond Market Transaction Costs and Transparency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1421-1451, June.
    14. Harjoat S. Bhamra & Lars-Alexander Kuehn & Ilya A. Strebulaev, 2010. "The Levered Equity Risk Premium and Credit Spreads: A Unified Framework," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, pages 645-703.
    15. Flannery, Mark J, 1986. " Asymmetric Information and Risky Debt Maturity Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 19-37, March.
    16. Robert A. Jarrow & David Lando & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 18, pages 411-453 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. Maria Vassalou & Yuhang Xing, 2004. "Default Risk in Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 831-868, April.
    18. Baker, Malcolm & Greenwood, Robin & Wurgler, Jeffrey, 2003. "The maturity of debt issues and predictable variation in bond returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 261-291, November.
    19. Miller, Merton H, 1977. "Debt and Taxes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 261-275, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ansgar Walther, 2014. "Jointly optimal regulation of bank capital and maturity structure," Economics Series Working Papers 725, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Hui Chen & Rui Cui & Zhiguo He & Konstantin Milbradt, 2014. "Quantifying Liquidity and Default Risks of Corporate Bonds over the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 20638, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Choi, Jaewon & Hackbarth, Dirk & Zechner, Josef, 2013. "Granularity of corporate debt," CFS Working Paper Series 2013/26, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    4. Bruche, Max & Segura, Anatoli, 2017. "Debt maturity and the liquidity of secondary debt markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, pages 599-613.
    5. Johannes Brumm & Michael Grill & Felix Kubler & Karl Schmedders, 2017. "Re-Use of Collateral: Leverage, Volatility, and Welfare," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 17-04, Swiss Finance Institute.
    6. Zhiguo He & Konstantin Milbradt, 2016. "Dynamic Debt Maturity," NBER Working Papers 21919, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Philipp König & David Pothier, 2014. "Asymmetric Information and Roll-over Risk," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1364, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Milbradt, Konstantin & Oehmke, Martin, 2015. "Maturity rationing and collective short-termism," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 84513, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. repec:eee:finana:v:54:y:2017:i:c:p:130-143 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:kap:jbuset:v:144:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10551-015-2856-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. el Alaoui, AbdelKader Ouatik & Bacha, Obiyathulla Ismath & Masih, Mansur & Asutay, Mehmet, 2016. "Shari’ah screening, market risk and contagion: A multi-country analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(S), pages 93-112.
    12. Konstantin Milbradt & Martin Oehmke, 2014. "Maturity Rationing and Collective Short-Termism," NBER Working Papers 19946, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset Pricing; Debt Management;

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:12-27. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.