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Cyclical Dispersion in Expected Defaults

Author

Listed:
  • João F Gomes
  • Marco Grotteria
  • Jessica A Wachter

Abstract

A growing literature shows that credit indicators forecast aggregate real outcomes. While researchers have proposed various explanations, the economic mechanism behind these results remains an open question. In this paper, we show that a simple, frictionless model explains empirical findings commonly attributed to credit cycles. Our key assumption is that firms have heterogeneous exposures to underlying economy-wide shocks. This leads to endogenous dispersion in credit quality that varies over time and predicts future excess returns and real outcomes.Received August 7, 2017; editorial decision June 26, 2018 by Editor Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Suggested Citation

  • João F Gomes & Marco Grotteria & Jessica A Wachter, 2019. "Cyclical Dispersion in Expected Defaults," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(4), pages 1275-1308.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:32:y:2019:i:4:p:1275-1308.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhy085
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    Cited by:

    1. Gomes, João F. & Grotteria, Marco & Wachter, Jessica A., 2023. "Foreseen risks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    2. Jessica A. Wachter & Michael Jacob Kahana, 2019. "A Retrieved-Context Theory Of Financial Decisions," NBER Working Papers 26200, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Christos Karydas & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2019. "Climate change risks: pricing and portfolio allocation," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 19/327, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    4. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson & Lawrence J. Jin, 2019. "Reflexivity in Credit Markets," NBER Working Papers 25747, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Brandão-Marques, Luis & Chen, Qianying & Raddatz, Claudio & Vandenbussche, Jérôme & Xie, Peichu, 2022. "The riskiness of credit allocation and financial stability," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    6. Farshid Abdi & Botao Wu, 2018. "Informed Corporate Credit Market Before Monetary Policy Surprises: Explaining Pre-FOMC Stock Market Movements," Working Papers on Finance 1828, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    7. Huseyin Gulen & Mihai Ion & Candace E Jens & Stefano Rossi, 2024. "Credit Cycles, Expectations, and Corporate Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 37(11), pages 3335-3385.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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