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Lending Pro-Cyclicality and Macro-Prudential Policy: Evidence from Japanese LTV Ratios

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  • Ono, Arito
  • Uchida, Hirofumi
  • Udell, Gregory F.
  • Uesugi, Iichiro

Abstract

Using a unique micro dataset compiled from the real estate registry in Japan, we examine more than 400,000 loan-to-value (LTV) ratios for business loans to draw implications for the efficacy of caps on LTV ratios as a macro-prudential policy measure. We find that the LTV ratio exhibits counter-cyclicality through the business cycle. We also find that borrowers obtaining high-LTV loans performed no worse ex-post than those with lower LTV loans. Our findings imply that a fixed cap on LTV ratios might not only be ineffective in curbing loan volume in boom periods but also inhibit well-performing firms from borrowing.

Suggested Citation

  • Ono, Arito & Uchida, Hirofumi & Udell, Gregory F. & Uesugi, Iichiro, 2016. "Lending Pro-Cyclicality and Macro-Prudential Policy: Evidence from Japanese LTV Ratios," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 41, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    • Handle: RePEc:hit:remfce:41
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    Cited by:

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    3. Wei-Fong Pan, 2019. "Detecting bubbles in China’s regional housing markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1413-1432, April.
    4. Dąbrowski, Marek A. & Widiantoro, Dimas Mukhlas, 2022. "Effectiveness and conduct of macroprudential policy in Indonesia in 2003-2020: Evidence from the structural VAR models," MPRA Paper 112963, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Luangaram, Pongsak & Thepmongkol, Athakrit, 2022. "Loan-to-value policy in a bubble-creation economy," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    6. Jelisaveta Lazarevic & Tanja Kuzman & Milan Nedeljkovic, 2022. "Credit cycles and macroprudential policies in emerging market economies," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 13(3), pages 633-666, September.
    7. Bofinger, Peter & Schnabel, Isabel & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Wieland, Volker, 2015. "Zukunftsfähigkeit in den Mittelpunkt. Jahresgutachten 2015/16 [Focus on Future Viability. Annual Report 2015/16]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201516.
    8. Giorgia Piacentino & Anjan Thakor & Jason Donaldson, 2015. "Bank Capital, Bank Credit and Unemployment," 2015 Meeting Papers 1403, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Ioannidou, Vasso & Degryse, Hans & Liberti, Jose Maria & Sturgess, Jason, 2016. "When Do Laws and Institutions Affect Recovery Rates on Collateral?," CEPR Discussion Papers 11406, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Hans Degryse & Vasso Ioannidou & José María Liberti & Jason Sturgess, 2020. "How Do Laws and Institutions Affect Recovery Rates for Collateral?," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 1-43.
    11. Basten, Christoph & Koch, Catherine, 2015. "The causal effect of house prices on mortgage demand and mortgage supply: Evidence from Switzerland," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 1-22.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    loan-to-value (LTV) ratios; pro-cyclicality; macro-prudential policy; bubble;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • R33 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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