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Contractionary macroprudential policy, collateral valuation, and risk-shifting in EU banking

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  • Koetter, Michael
  • Noth, Felix
  • Wöbbeking, Carl Fabian

Abstract

We study real estate lending responses to tighter macroprudential policy (MPP) in the form of lower required loan-to-value (LTV) ratios. Contract details of 2.4 million mortgage loans originated between 2008 and 2020 reveal significantly fewer new loan issuances in response to contractionary MPP, commensurate with an average reduction in aggregate lending of 21 percent. Loan-level analyses reveal, however, that banks comply with lower LTVs by systematically more benevolent valuations of residential real estate pledged as collateral instead of reducing loan size. Exploiting earthquakes as plausible exogenous shocks to property values corroborates these risk-shifting patterns by banks in the form of inflated property valuations after LTV shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Koetter, Michael & Noth, Felix & Wöbbeking, Carl Fabian, 2025. "Contractionary macroprudential policy, collateral valuation, and risk-shifting in EU banking," IWH Discussion Papers 4/2025, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2025.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:311202
    DOI: 10.18717/dp8vbg-3v09
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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