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Dynamics of Housing Debt in the Recent Boom and Great Recession

In: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017, volume 32

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Listed:
  • Manuel Adelino
  • Antoinette Schoar
  • Felipe Severino

Abstract

This paper documents a number of key facts about the evolution of mortgage debt, homeownership, debt burden and subsequent delinquency during the recent housing boom and Great Recession. We show that the mortgage expansion was shared across the entire income distribution, i.e. the flow and stock of debt rose across all income groups (except for the top 5%). The mortgage expansion was especially pronounced in areas with increased house prices, and the speed at which houses turned over (churn) in these areas went up significantly. However, the average loan-to-value ratios (LTV) at origination did not increase over the boom period. While homeownership rates increased for the middle and upper income households, there was no increase in homeownership for the lowest income groups. Finally, default rates post-crisis went up predominantly in areas with large house price drops, especially for high income and high- FICO borrowers. These results are consistent with a view that the run up in mortgage debt over the pre-crisis period was driven by rising home values and expectations of increasing prices.
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Suggested Citation

  • Manuel Adelino & Antoinette Schoar & Felipe Severino, 2017. "Dynamics of Housing Debt in the Recent Boom and Great Recession," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017, volume 32, pages 265-311 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:13919
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    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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