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The Role of Housing and Mortgage Markets in the Financial Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Manuel Adelino

    (Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708, USA)

  • Antoinette Schoar

    (Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142, USA)

  • Felipe Severino

    (Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire 03755, USA)

Abstract

Ten years after the financial crisis of 2008, there is widespread agreement that the boom in mortgage lending and its subsequent reversal were at the core of the Great Recession. We survey the existing evidence, which suggests that inflated house-price expectations across the economy played a central role in driving both the demand for and the supply of mortgage credit before the crisis. The great misnomer of the 2008 crisis is that it was not a subprime crisis but rather a middle-class crisis. Inflated house-price expectations led households across all income groups, especially the middle class, to increase their demand for housing and mortgage leverage. Similarly, banks lent against increasing collateral values and underestimated the risk of defaults. We highlight how these emerging facts have essential implications for policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Manuel Adelino & Antoinette Schoar & Felipe Severino, 2018. "The Role of Housing and Mortgage Markets in the Financial Crisis," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 25-41, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:anr:refeco:v:10:y:2018:p:25-41
    DOI: 10.1146/annurev-financial-110217-023036
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Zeeshan Younas, 2020. "How Did Risk Management Methods Change After The 2007 Sub-Prime Mortgage Crisis In The United Kingdom?," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(1), pages 22-31, March.
    2. Bartscher, Alina K. & Kuhn, Moritz & Schularick, Moritz & Steins, Ulrike I., 2025. "The distribution of household debt in the United States, 1950-2022," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 324154, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Ono, Arito & Uchida, Hirofumi & Udell, Gregory F. & Uesugi, Iichiro, 2021. "Lending pro-cyclicality and macroprudential policy: Evidence from Japanese LTV ratios," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    4. Giacomo Rella, 2021. "The Fed, housing and household debt over time," Department of Economics University of Siena 850, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    5. Tang, John P. & Basco, Sergi, 2023. "Banks, credit supply, and the life cycle of firms: Evidence from late nineteenth century Japan," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    6. Harold H. Zhang & Feng Zhao & Xiaofei Zhao, 2024. "Neglected Risks in the Communication of Residential Mortgage‐Backed Securities Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(1), pages 129-172, February.
    7. Andrieş, Alin Marius & Ongena, Steven & Sprincean, Nicu, 2025. "Sectoral credit allocation and systemic risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    8. John Geanakoplos, 2022. "Leverage Cycle Theory of Economic Crises and Booms," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2370, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    9. Bartscher, Alina K. & Kuhn, Moritz & Schularick, Moritz & Steins, Ulrike I., 2025. "The distribution of household debt in the United States, 1950-2022," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 318398, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    10. Manuel Adelino & William B. McCartney & Antoinette Schoar, 2020. "The Role of Government and Private Institutions in Credit Cycles in the U.S. Mortgage Market," NBER Working Papers 27499, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Manuel Adelino & W. Ben McCartney & Antoinette Schoar, 2020. "The Role of Government and Private Institutions in Credit Cycles in the U.S. Mortgage Market," Working Papers 20-40, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    12. Bartscher, Alina K. & Kuhn, Moritz & Schularick, Moritz & Steins, Ulrike I., 2025. "The distribution of household debt in the United States, 1950-2022," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 323602, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    13. Duan, Chengyonghui & Soh, Wei Ni & Ong, Tze San & Abdul Rahim, Norhuda Bt, 2025. "Evidence from financial freedom moderating the relationship between government intervention and financial stability," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    14. Flannery, Mark J. & Lin, Leming & Wang, Luxi, 2022. "Housing booms and bank growth," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    15. Berg, Tobias & Haselmann, Rainer, 2025. "Assessing real estate risks and vulnerabilities: Hidden cracks in the financial system?," SAFE White Paper Series 111, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    16. Shengguo Li & Jiaqi Liu & Jichang Dong & Xuerong Li, 2021. "20 Years of Research on Real Estate Bubbles, Risk and Exuberance: A Bibliometric Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-24, August.
    17. Ingo Rohlfing & Tobias Schafföner, 2019. "The time-varying relationship between economic globalization and the ideological center of gravity of party systems," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(2), pages 1-26, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General
    • D30 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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