A Close Look at Loan-To-Value Ratios: Evidence from the Japanese Real Estate Market
Using a unique micro dataset compiled from official real estate registries in Japan, we examine the evolution of loan-to-value (LTV) ratios for business loans over the 1975 to 2009 period, the determinants of these ratios, and the ex post performance of the borrowers. We find that the LTV ratio exhibits counter-cyclicality, implying that the increase (decrease) in loan volumes is smaller than the increase (decrease) in land values during booms (busts). Most importantly, the median LTV ratios are at their lowest during the bubble period in the late 1980s and early 1990s. The counter-cyclicality of LTV ratios is robust to controlling for various characteristics of loans, borrowers, and lenders. We also find that borrowers that obtained high-LTV loans performed no worse ex-post than those with low-LTV loans, and performed better during the bubble period. These findings cast doubt on the conventional wisdom that banks adopted more lax lending standards during the bubble period, although we have other evidence in support of that story. We also draw some implications for the ongoing debate on the use of LTV ratio caps as a macroprudential policy measure.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: +81-42-580-8327|
Web page: http://www.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/ifn/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jeremy C. Stein, 1995. "Prices and Trading Volume in the Housing Market: A Model with Down-Payment Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(2), pages 379-406.
- Donghoon Lee & Christopher J. Mayer & Joseph Tracy, 2012.
"A new look at second liens,"
569, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Allen N. Berger & Gregory F. Udell, 2003.
"The institutional memory hypothesis and the procyclicality of bank lending behavior,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2003-02, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Berger, Allen N. & Udell, Gregory F., 2004. "The institutional memory hypothesis and the procyclicality of bank lending behavior," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 458-495, October.
- Allen N. Berger & Gregory F. Udell, 2003. "The institutional memory hypothesis and the procyclicality of bank lending behaviour," BIS Working Papers 125, Bank for International Settlements.
- Matteo Iacoviello, 2005.
"House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
- Matteo Iacoviello, 2002. "House prices, borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 542, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2004.
- Gerlach, Stefan & Peng, Wensheng, 2005.
"Bank lending and property prices in Hong Kong,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 461-481, February.
- Deniz O Igan & Heedon Kang, 2011. "Do Loan-To-Value and Debt-To-Income Limits Work? Evidence From Korea," IMF Working Papers 11/297, International Monetary Fund.
- Shekhar Aiyar & Charles W. Calomiris & Tomasz Wieladek, 2012.
"Does Macro-Pru Leak? Evidence from a UK Policy Experiment,"
NBER Working Papers
17822, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aiyar, Shekhar & Calomiris , Charles W & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2012. "Does macropru leak? Evidence from a UK policy experiment," Bank of England working papers 445, Bank of England.
- Charles A.E. Goodhart & Anil K Kashyap & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos & Alexandros P. Vardoulakis, 2012.
"Financial Regulation in General Equilibrium,"
NBER Working Papers
17909, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Charles Goodhart & Anil K Kashyap & Dimitrios Tsomocos & Alexandros Vardoulakis, 2012. "Financial Regulation in General Equilibrium," FMG Discussion Papers dp702, Financial Markets Group.
- Goodhart, Ch. A. E. & Kashyap, A. K. & Tsomocos, D. P. & Vardoulakis, A. P., 2012. "Financial Regulation in General Equilibrium," Working papers 372, Banque de France.
- Heitor Almeida & Murillo Campello & Crocker Liu, 2006. "The Financial Accelerator: Evidence from International Housing Markets," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 10(3), pages 321-352, September.
- Berger, Allen N. & Udell, Gregory F., 2006. "A more complete conceptual framework for SME finance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 2945-2966, November.
- Alexandros Vardoulakis, 2012. "Financial regulation in general equilibrium," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hit:cinwps:19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Digital Resources Section, Hitotsubashi University Library)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.