IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1805.08454.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Understanding Flash Crash Contagion and Systemic Risk: A Micro-Macro Agent-Based Approach

Author

Listed:
  • James Paulin
  • Anisoara Calinescu
  • Michael Wooldridge

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to advance the understanding of the conditions that give rise to flash crash contagion, particularly with respect to overlapping asset portfolio crowding. To this end, we designed, implemented, and assessed a hybrid micro-macro agent-based model, where price impact arises endogenously through the limit order placement activity of algorithmic traders. Our novel hybrid microscopic and macroscopic model allows us to quantify systemic risk not just in terms of system stability, but also in terms of the speed of financial distress propagation over intraday timescales. We find that systemic risk is strongly dependent on the behaviour of algorithmic traders, on leverage management practices, and on network topology. Our results demonstrate that, for high-crowding regimes, contagion speed is a non-monotone function of portfolio diversification. We also find the surprising result that, in certain circumstances, increased portfolio crowding is beneficial to systemic stability. We are not aware of previous studies that have exhibited this phenomenon, and our results establish the importance of considering non-uniform asset allocations in future studies. Finally, we characterise the time window available for regulatory interventions during the propagation of flash crash distress, with results suggesting ex ante precautions may have higher efficacy than ex post reactions.

Suggested Citation

  • James Paulin & Anisoara Calinescu & Michael Wooldridge, 2018. "Understanding Flash Crash Contagion and Systemic Risk: A Micro-Macro Agent-Based Approach," Papers 1805.08454, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1805.08454
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1805.08454
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sandrine Jacob Leal & Mauro Napoletano, 2016. "Market Stability vs. Market Resilience: Regulatory Policies Experiments in an Agent-Based Model with Low- and High- Frequency Trading," Sciences Po publications 2016-12, Sciences Po.
    2. Caccioli, Fabio & Farmer, J. Doyne & Foti, Nick & Rockmore, Daniel, 2015. "Overlapping portfolios, contagion, and financial stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 50-63.
    3. Adrian, Tobias & Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Liquidity and leverage," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 418-437, July.
    4. Franke, Reiner & Westerhoff, Frank, 2012. "Structural stochastic volatility in asset pricing dynamics: Estimation and model contest," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1193-1211.
    5. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse H. Pedersen & Thomas Philippon & Matthew Richardson, 2017. "Measuring Systemic Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 2-47.
    6. Kirman Alan & Teyssière Gilles, 2002. "Microeconomic Models for Long Memory in the Volatility of Financial Time Series," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(4), pages 1-23, January.
    7. Neil Johnson & Guannan Zhao & Eric Hunsader & Jing Meng & Amith Ravindar & Spencer Carran & Brian Tivnan, 2012. "Financial black swans driven by ultrafast machine ecology," Papers 1202.1448, arXiv.org.
    8. Tesfatsion, Leigh S., 2002. "Agent-Based Computational Economics: Growing Economies from the Bottom Up," Staff General Research Papers Archive 5075, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    9. Stefano Battiston & Marco D'Errico & Stefano Gurciullo & Guido Caldarelli, 2015. "Leveraging the network: a stress-test framework based on DebtRank," Papers 1503.00621, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2016.
    10. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    11. Mark Paddrik & Roy Hayes & William Scherer & Peter Beling, 2017. "Effects of limit order book information level on market stability metrics," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 12(2), pages 221-247, July.
    12. Sandrine Jacob Leal & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2016. "Rock around the clock: An agent-based model of low- and high-frequency trading," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 49-76, March.
    13. LeBaron, Blake, 2000. "Agent-based computational finance: Suggested readings and early research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 679-702, June.
    14. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Macroeconomic Policy in DSGE and Agent-Based Models Redux: New Developments and Challenges Ahead," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 20(1), pages 1-1.
    15. repec:oup:oxford:v:34:y:2018:i:1-2:p:219-251. is not listed on IDEAS
    16. A G Haldane & A E Turrell, 2018. "An interdisciplinary model for macroeconomics," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(1-2), pages 219-251.
    17. Sandrine Jacob Leal & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2016. "Rock around the clock: An agent-based model of low- and high-frequency trading," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 49-76, March.
    18. repec:eee:dyncon:v:94:y:2018:i:c:p:117-141 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. repec:oup:revfin:v:21:y:2017:i:1:p:109-152. is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Dimitrios Bisias & Mark Flood & Andrew W. Lo & Stavros Valavanis, 2012. "A Survey of Systemic Risk Analytics," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 255-296, October.
    21. Caccioli, Fabio & Shrestha, Munik & Moore, Cristopher & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2014. "Stability analysis of financial contagion due to overlapping portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 233-245.
    22. Giorgio Fagiolo & Mattia Guerini & Francesco Lamperti & Alessio Moneta & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Validation of Agent-Based Models in Economics and Finance," LEM Papers Series 2017/23, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    23. Domenico Di Gangi & Fabrizio Lillo & Davide Pirino, 2015. "Assessing systemic risk due to fire sales spillover through maximum entropy network reconstruction," Papers 1509.00607, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2018.
    24. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2015. "Systemic Risk and Stability in Financial Networks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(2), pages 564-608, February.
    25. Anton Golub & John Keane & Ser-Huang Poon, 2012. "High Frequency Trading and Mini Flash Crashes," Papers 1211.6667, arXiv.org.
    26. Gode, Dhananjay K & Sunder, Shyam, 1993. "Allocative Efficiency of Markets with Zero-Intelligence Traders: Market as a Partial Substitute for Individual Rationality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(1), pages 119-137, February.
    27. repec:hrv:faseco:33077925 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. J. Doyne Farmer & Laszlo Gillemot & Fabrizio Lillo & Szabolcs Mike & Anindya Sen, 2004. "What really causes large price changes?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 383-397.
    29. Nier, Erlend & Yang, Jing & Yorulmazer, Tanju & Alentorn, Amadeo, 2007. "Network models and financial stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 2033-2060, June.
    30. J. Doyne Farmer & Paolo Patelli & Ilija I. Zovko, 2003. "The Predictive Power of Zero Intelligence in Financial Markets," Papers cond-mat/0309233, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2004.
    31. Eric Budish & Peter Cramton & John Shim, 2015. "Editor's Choice The High-Frequency Trading Arms Race: Frequent Batch Auctions as a Market Design Response," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 130(4), pages 1547-1621.
    32. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    33. Giovanni Cespa & Thierry Foucault, 2014. "Illiquidity Contagion and Liquidity Crashes," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(6), pages 1615-1660.
    34. Bence Toth & Yves Lemperiere & Cyril Deremble & Joachim de Lataillade & Julien Kockelkoren & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2011. "Anomalous price impact and the critical nature of liquidity in financial markets," Papers 1105.1694, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2011.
    35. M. Cristelli & V. Alfi & L. Pietronero & A. Zaccaria, 2010. "Liquidity crisis, granularity of the order book and price fluctuations," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 73(1), pages 41-49, January.
    36. Albert J. Menkveld, 2016. "The Economics of High-Frequency Trading: Taking Stock," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 1-24, October.
    37. repec:bla:jfinan:v:72:y:2017:i:3:p:967-998 is not listed on IDEAS
    38. Giorgio Fagiolo & Alessio Moneta & Paul Windrum, 2007. "A Critical Guide to Empirical Validation of Agent-Based Models in Economics: Methodologies, Procedures, and Open Problems," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 30(3), pages 195-226, October.
    39. R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
    40. David Easley & Marcos M. López de Prado & Maureen O'Hara, 2012. "Flow Toxicity and Liquidity in a High-frequency World," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(5), pages 1457-1493.
    41. Sylvain Benoit & Jean-Edouard Colliard & Christophe Hurlin & Christophe Pérignon, 2017. "Where the Risks Lie: A Survey on Systemic Risk," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 109-152.
    42. Matteo Serri & Guido Caldarelli & Giulio Cimini, 2016. "How the interbank market becomes systemically dangerous: an agent-based network model of financial distress propagation," Papers 1611.04311, arXiv.org.
    43. repec:oup:rasset:v:5:y:2015:i:2:p:227-253. is not listed on IDEAS
    44. Gai, Prasanna & Haldane, Andrew & Kapadia, Sujit, 2011. "Complexity, concentration and contagion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 453-470.
    45. Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, 2011. "Fire Sales in Finance and Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 29-48, Winter.
    46. Richard Sias & H. J. Turtle & Blerina Zykaj, 2016. "Hedge Fund Crowds and Mispricing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(3), pages 764-784, March.
    47. Ilija Zovko & J Doyne Farmer, 2002. "The power of patience: a behavioural regularity in limit-order placement," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(5), pages 387-392.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1805.08454. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.