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Assessing portfolio credit risk changes in a sample of EU large and complex banking groups in reaction to macroeconomic shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Castrén, Olli
  • Fitzpatrick, Trevor
  • Sydow, Matthias

Abstract

In terms of regulatory and economic capital, credit risk is the most significant risk faced by banks. We implement a credit risk model - based on publicly available information - with the aim of developing a tool to monitor credit risk in a sample of large and complex banking groups (LCBGs) in the EU. The results indicate varying credit risk profiles across these LCBGs and over time. Furthermore, the results show that large negative shocks to real GDP have the largest impact on the credit risk profiles of banks in the sample. Notwithstanding some caveats, the results demonstrate the potential value of this approach for monitoring financial stability. JEL Classification: C02, C19, C52, C61, E32

Suggested Citation

  • Castrén, Olli & Fitzpatrick, Trevor & Sydow, Matthias, 2009. "Assessing portfolio credit risk changes in a sample of EU large and complex banking groups in reaction to macroeconomic shocks," Working Paper Series 1002, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20091002
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1002.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gordy, Michael B., 2000. "A comparative anatomy of credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 119-149, January.
    2. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
    3. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    4. Thomas C. Wilson, 1998. "Portfolio credit risk," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 71-82.
    5. Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2000. "A comparative analysis of current credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 59-117, January.
    6. Koenker, Roger & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1982. "Robust Tests for Heteroscedasticity Based on Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 43-61, January.
    7. Marco Sorge, 2004. "Stress-testing financial systems: an overview of current methodologies," BIS Working Papers 165, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Castrén, Olli & Dées, Stéphane & Zaher, Fadi, 2008. "Global macro-financial shocks and expected default frequencies in the euro area," Working Paper Series 875, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Saldías, Martín, 2013. "A market-based approach to sector risk determinants and transmission in the euro area," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4534-4555.
    2. Henry, Jérôme & Kok, Christoffer & Amzallag, Adrien & Baudino, Patrizia & Cabral, Inês & Grodzicki, Maciej & Gross, Marco & Halaj, Grzegorz & Kolb, Markus & Leber, Miha & Pancaro, Cosimo & Sydow, Matt, 2013. "A macro stress testing framework for assessing systemic risks in the banking sector," Occasional Paper Series 152, European Central Bank.
    3. J'ozsef Mezei & Peter Sarlin, 2016. "RiskRank: Measuring interconnected risk," Papers 1601.06204, arXiv.org.
    4. Tente, Natalia & von Westernhagen, Natalja & Slopek, Ulf, 2017. "M-PRESS-CreditRisk: A holistic micro- and macroprudential approach to capital requirements," Discussion Papers 15/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Jozsef Mezei & Peter Sarlin, 2014. "Aggregation operators for the measurement of systemic risk," Papers 1412.5452, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2014.
    6. Peter Sarlin & Henrik J. Nyman, 2013. "The process of macroprudential oversight in Europe," Papers 1312.7545, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2014.
    7. Francesco Grigoli & Mario Mansilla & Martín Saldías, 2016. "Macro-Financial Linkages and Heterogeneous Non-Performing Loans Projections; An Application to Ecuador," IMF Working Papers 16/236, International Monetary Fund.
    8. NUCU, Anca Elena, 2011. "Managementul riscului de creditare: realizari actuale, analiza critica, sugestii
      [Credit risk management: current achievements, critical analysis, suggestions]
      ," MPRA Paper 27932, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Kraemer-Eis, Helmut & Lang, Frank & Kyriakopoulos, Athanasios, 2012. "European Small Business Finance Outlook: May/2012," EIF Working Paper Series 2012/14, European Investment Fund (EIF).
    10. Martín Saldías, 2011. "Sectoral credit risk in the euro area," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    11. repec:eee:ecmode:v:68:y:2018:i:c:p:41-50 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    macroeconomic shock measurement; Portfolio credit risk measurement; stress testing;

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C19 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Other
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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