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Credit risk connectivity in the financial industry and stabilization effects of government bailouts

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  • Bosma, Jakob
  • Koetter, Michael
  • Wedow, Michael

Abstract

We identify the connections between financial institutions from different sectors of the financial industry based on joint extreme movements in credit default swap (CDS) spreads. First, we estimate pairwise co-crash probabilities (CCP) to identify significant connections among 193 international financial institutions and explain CCPs with shared country and/or sectoral origin indicators. Second, we use network centrality measures to identify systemically important financial institutions. Third, we test if bailouts stabilized network neighbors and thus this financial system. Financial firms from the same sector and country are most likely significantly connected. Inter-sector and intra-sector connectivity across countries also increase the likelihood of significant links. Central network indicators based on significant CCPs identify many institutions that failed during the 2007/2008 crisis. Excess equity returns in response to bank bailouts are overall negative and significantly lower for connected banks.

Suggested Citation

  • Bosma, Jakob & Koetter, Michael & Wedow, Michael, 2012. "Credit risk connectivity in the financial industry and stabilization effects of government bailouts," Discussion Papers 16/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:162012
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    1. repec:eee:jbfina:v:85:y:2017:i:c:p:99-112 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. De Bruyckere, Valerie & Gerhardt, Maria & Schepens, Glenn & Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2013. "Bank/sovereign risk spillovers in the European debt crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4793-4809.
    3. Georgescu, Oana-Maria & Gross, Marco & Kapp, Daniel & Kok, Christoffer, 2017. "Do stress tests matter? Evidence from the 2014 and 2016 stress tests," Working Paper Series 2054, European Central Bank.
    4. Trapp, Monika & Wewel, Claudio, 2012. "Transatlantic systemic risk," CFR Working Papers 12-10, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    5. Trapp, Monika & Wewel, Claudio, 2013. "Transatlantic systemic risk," CFR Working Papers 12-10 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    6. Moore, Kyle & Zhou, Chen, 2014. "The determinants of systemic importance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 59289, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Trapp, Monika & Wewel, Claudio, 2013. "Transatlantic systemic risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4241-4255.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Extreme Value Theory; CDS Spreads; Systemic Institutions; Network Stability;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management

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