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Credit ratings in structured finance and the role of systemic risk

Author

Listed:
  • Roberto Violi

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

This paper explores the implications of systemic risk in Credit Structured Finance (CSF). Risk measurement issues loomed large during the 2007-08 financial crisis, as the massive, unprecedented number of downgrades of AAA senior bond tranches inflicted severe losses on banks, calling into question the credibility of Rating Agencies. I discuss the limits of the standard risk frameworks in CSF (Gaussian, Single Risk Factor Model; GSRFM), popular among market participants. If implemented in a �static� fashion, GSRFM can substantially underprice risk at times of stress. I introduce a simple �dynamic� version of GSRFM that captures the impact of large systemic shocks (e.g. financial meltdown) for the value of CSF bonds (ABS, CDO, CLO, etc.). I argue that a proper 'dynamic' modeling of systemic risk is crucial for gauging the exposure to default contagion (�correlation risk�). Two policy implications are drawn from a 'dynamic' GSRFM: (i) when rating CSF deals, Agencies should disclose additional risk information (e.g. the expected losses under stressed scenarios; asset correlation estimates); and (ii) a �point-in-time� approach to rating CSF bonds is more appropriate than a �through-the-cycle� approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Violi, 2010. "Credit ratings in structured finance and the role of systemic risk," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 774, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_774_10
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeffery D. Amato & Eli M Remolona, 2005. "The pricing of unexpected credit losses," BIS Working Papers 190, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Tarashev, Nikola, 2010. "Measuring portfolio credit risk correctly: Why parameter uncertainty matters," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 2065-2076, September.
    3. Ingo Fender & John Kiff, 2004. "CDO rating methodology: Some thoughts on model risk and its implications," BIS Working Papers 163, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    structured finance; systemic risk; credit risk measures; bond pricing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance

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