IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Liquidität, Risikoeinstellung des Kapitalmarktes und Konjunkturerwartung als Preisdeterminanten von Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) - Eine simulationsgestützte Analyse

  • Gann, Philipp
Registered author(s):

    Gegenstand der vorliegenden Arbeit ist die Analyse des Einflusses der Faktoren Konjunkturerwartung, Risikoaversion des Kapitalmarktes und Liquidität auf die Marktwerte von Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) verschiedener Seniorität. Es wird gezeigt, dass die Marktwerte von CDOs wesentlich durch das makroökonomische Umfeld determiniert werden. Die explizite Konjunktur- sowie Assetkorrelationserwartung des Kapitalmarktes beeinflusst zum einen die Emissionserlöse aus einer Verbriefung und damit die Anreize der Originatoren zur Verbriefung ihrer ausfallrisikobehafteten Assets, zum anderen die tranchenspezifischen Marktwerte bereits emittierter CDOs in Abhängigkeit der Subordination. Den größten Teil des Risikos makroökonomischer Veränderungen trägt das Equity Piece sowie die stärker subordinierten Tranchen. Eine Veränderung der Assetkorrelationen beeinflusst die Marktwerte der einzelnen Tranchen ebenfalls in stark unterschiedlicher Weise. Die Analyseergebnisse indizieren, dass bereits geringfügige Veränderungen der Konjunkturerwartung sowie der Assetkorrelationen hohe Ratingänderungen der Investment Grade-Tranchen implizieren und die tranchenspezifische Volatilität der Ratingeinschätzung der Agentur Moody’s grundsätzlich von der der Agenturen Standard & Poor’s sowie Fitch abweichen kann. Ferner wird in vorliegender Arbeit der Einfluss der Risikoaversion des Kapitalmarktes auf die Marktwerte von CDOs verschiedener Seniorität analysiert. Die Höhe der Risikoaversion beeinflusst den Wert der einzelnen Tranchen dabei umso stärker, je größer deren Subordination ausfällt. Es wird gezeigt, dass dem aktuellen Marktumfeld eine entscheidende Bedeutung für die relative Vorteilhaftigkeit der Veräußerung einzelner Tranchen zukommt und die Höhe der Risikoaversion des Kapitalmarktes die Kreditvergabestandards der Institute zu beeinflussen vermag. Weiterhin wird der marktphasenabhängige Einfluss des Liquiditätsrisikos auf die Marktwerte von CDOs modelliert. Dabei wird auf Grundlage empirischer Erkenntnisse die Abhängigkeit des Liquiditätsrisikos von dem aktuellen Marktumfeld abgebildet, um auf dieser Basis die durch dynamische Veränderungen des Liquiditätsrisikos bedingten Spread- und Marktwertveränderungen von CDO-Tranchen unterschiedlicher Seniorität quantitativ erfassen zu können. Durch die Quantifizierung des liquiditätsrisikoinduzierten Einflusses einer Veränderung des Marktumfelds auf die Marktwerte von CDOs kann der empirisch belegte hohe Einfluss des Liquiditätsrisikos zu Krisenzeiten gerade für die unter dem Gesichtspunkt des Kreditrisikos als verhältnismäßig risikoarm eingeschätzten höherrangigen CDO-Tranchen simulationsgestützt aufgezeigt werden.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://epub.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10582/1/CDOs_Simulation_Philipp_Gann_neu.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by University of Munich, Munich School of Management in its series Discussion Papers in Business Administration with number 10582.

    as
    in new window

    Length:
    Date of creation: Apr 2009
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:lmu:msmdpa:10582
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Ludwigstr. 28,80539 Munich, Germany
    Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-3888
    Fax: +49-(0)89-344054
    Web page: http://www.bwl.uni-muenchen.de

    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Bank for International Settlements, 1999. "Market Liquidity: Research Findings and Selected Policy Implications," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 11, April.
    2. Jan Pieter Krahnen & Christian Wilde, 2008. "Risk Transfer with CDOs," Working Paper Series: Finance and Accounting 187, Department of Finance, Goethe University Frankfurt am Main.
    3. Arnoud W A Boot & Anjan V Thakor, 1992. "Security Design," CEPR Financial Markets Paper 0020, European Science Foundation Network in Financial Markets, c/o C.E.P.R, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ..
    4. Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven, 2012. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 367-384, 03.
    5. Acharya, Viral V & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2003. "Asset Pricing with Liquidity Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 3749, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    7. Franke, Günter & Krahnen, Jan Pieter, 2008. "The future of securitization," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/31, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    8. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
    9. Flynn, Sean Masaki, 2003. "Limited Arbitrage, Segmentation, and Investor Heterogeneity: Why the Law of One Price So Often Fails," Vassar College Department of Economics Working Paper Series 56, Vassar College Department of Economics.
    10. Andreas A. Jobst, 2002. "Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) – A Primer," Working Paper Series: Finance and Accounting 96, Department of Finance, Goethe University Frankfurt am Main.
    11. Gann, Philipp & Laut, Amelie, 2008. "Einflussfaktoren auf den Credit Spread von Unternehmensanleihen," Discussion Papers in Business Administration 4231, University of Munich, Munich School of Management.
    12. Thomas C. Wilson, 1998. "Portfolio credit risk," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 71-82.
    13. Lang, Gunter & Welzel, Peter, 1996. "Efficiency and technical progress in banking Empirical results for a panel of German cooperative banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 1003-1023, July.
    14. Jeffery D Amato & Eli M Remolona, 2003. "The credit spread puzzle," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    15. Maciej Firla-Cuchra & Tim Jenkinson, 2005. "Why are Securitization Issues Tranched?," OFRC Working Papers Series 2005fe04, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
    16. Ingo Fender & John Kiff, 2004. "CDO rating methodology: Some thoughts on model risk and its implications," BIS Working Papers 163, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Janet Mitchell, 2005. "Financial intermediation theory and implications for the sources of value in structured finance markets," Working Paper Document 71, National Bank of Belgium.
    18. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June.
    19. Jan Pieter Krahnen, 2005. "Der Handel von Kreditrisiken: Eine neue Dimension des Kapitalmarktes," Working Paper Series: Finance and Accounting 152, Department of Finance, Goethe University Frankfurt am Main.
    20. Huberman, G. & Halka, D., 1999. "Systematic Liquidity," Papers 99-9, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
    21. Riddiough, Timothy J., 1997. "Optimal Design and Governance of Asset-Backed Securities," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 121-152, April.
    22. Amato, Jeffery D. & Furfine, Craig H., 2004. "Are credit ratings procyclical?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2641-2677, November.
    23. Schaber, Albert, 2008. "Combination notes: market segmentation and equity transfer," Discussion Papers in Business Administration 7956, University of Munich, Munich School of Management.
    24. Schaber, Albert, 2008. "Combination notes: market segmentation and equity transfer," Discussion Papers in Business Administration 4151, University of Munich, Munich School of Management.
    25. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    26. Peter DeMarzo & Darrell Duffie, 1999. "A Liquidity-Based Model of Security Design," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(1), pages 65-100, January.
    27. Longstaff, Francis A, 1995. " How Much Can Marketability Affect Security Values?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1767-74, December.
    28. Froot, Kenneth A. & Dabora, Emil M., 1999. "How are stock prices affected by the location of trade?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 189-216, August.
    29. Schaber, Albert, 2008. "Combination notes: market segmentation and equity transfer," Discussion Papers in Business Administration 4482, University of Munich, Munich School of Management.
    30. Peter M. DeMarzo, 2005. "The Pooling and Tranching of Securities: A Model of Informed Intermediation," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 1-35.
    31. Hans Gersbach & Alexander Lipponer, 2003. "Firm Defaults and the Correlation Effect," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 9(3), pages 361-378.
    32. Edwin J. Elton, 2001. "Explaining the Rate Spread on Corporate Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 247-277, 02.
    33. Yakov Amihud & Haim Mendelson, 2006. "Stock and Bond Liquidity and its Effect on Prices and Financial Policies," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 19-32, April.
    34. Tsuji, Chikashi, 2005. "The credit-spread puzzle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1073-1089, November.
    35. Scheicher, Martin, 2008. "How has CDO market pricing changed during the turmoil? Evidence from CDS index tranches," Working Paper Series 0910, European Central Bank.
    36. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2000. "Commonality in liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 3-28, April.
    37. Ross, Stephen A, 1976. "Options and Efficiency," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 90(1), pages 75-89, February.
    38. Jeffery D. Amato & Eli M Remolona, 2005. "The pricing of unexpected credit losses," BIS Working Papers 190, Bank for International Settlements.
    39. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    40. Perraudin, William & Taylor, Alex P., 2004. "On the consistency of ratings and bond market yields," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2769-2788, November.
    41. Maciej Firla-Cuchra, 2005. "Explaining Launch Spreads on Structured Bonds," Economics Series Working Papers 230, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    42. Goyenko, Ruslan & Sarkissian, Sergei, 2010. "Flight to Liquidity and Global Equity Returns," MPRA Paper 27546, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    43. Stange, Sebastian & Kaserer, Christoph, 2008. "The impact of order size on stock liquidity: a representative study," CEFS Working Paper Series 2008-09, Center for Entrepreneurial and Financial Studies (CEFS), Technische Universität München.
    44. Gorton, Gary & Pennacchi, George, 1990. " Financial Intermediaries and Liquidity Creation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 49-71, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lmu:msmdpa:10582. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Philipp Beltz)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.