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Firm Defaults and the Correlation Effect

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  • Hans Gersbach
  • Alexander Lipponer

Abstract

We examine how the correlations of bank loan defaults depend on the correlations of asset returns and how correlations and diversification are affected by macroeconomic risks. We highlight the main properties of the relationship between asset returns and default correlations, illustrating how adverse macroeconomic shocks raise not only the likelihood of defaults, but also the correlation of defaults. The latter effect, called correlation effect, may account for more than 50% of the increase in the credit risk. Copyright Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2003.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans Gersbach & Alexander Lipponer, 2003. "Firm Defaults and the Correlation Effect," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 9(3), pages 361-378.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:9:y:2003:i:3:p:361-378
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    Cited by:

    1. Gann, Philipp, 2009. "Liquidität, Risikoeinstellung des Kapitalmarktes und Konjunkturerwartung als Preisdeterminanten von Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) - Eine simulationsgestützte Analyse," Discussion Papers in Business Administration 10582, University of Munich, Munich School of Management.
    2. Bonfim, Diana, 2009. "Credit risk drivers: Evaluating the contribution of firm level information and of macroeconomic dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 281-299, February.
    3. Berg, Tobias & Kaserer, Christoph, 2008. "Linking credit risk premia to the equity premium," CEFS Working Paper Series 2008-01, Technische Universität München (TUM), Center for Entrepreneurial and Financial Studies (CEFS).
    4. Khieu, Hinh D. & Mullineaux, Donald J. & Yi, Ha-Chin, 2012. "The determinants of bank loan recovery rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 923-933.
    5. Pesola, Jarmo, 2011. "Joint effect of financial fragility and macroeconomic shocks on bank loan losses: Evidence from Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 3134-3144, November.
    6. Linda Allen & Anthony Saunders, 2004. "Incorporating Systemic Influences Into Risk Measurements: A Survey of the Literature," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 26(2), pages 161-191, October.
    7. J. Crook & T. Bellotti, 2012. "Asset correlations for credit card defaults," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 87-95, January.
    8. Bernd Hofmann, 2005. "Procyclicality: The Macroeconomic Impact of Risk-Based Capital Requirements," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 19(2), pages 179-200, August.
    9. Sorge, Marco & Virolainen, Kimmo, 2006. "A comparative analysis of macro stress-testing methodologies with application to Finland," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 113-151, June.

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