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Joint effect of financial fragility and macroeconomic shocks on bank loan losses: Evidence from Europe

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  • Pesola, Jarmo

Abstract

A reduced-form model including nonlinearities is estimated from pooled data from nine European countries during 1982-2004 to show the effects of macroeconomic shocks and financial fragility on bank loan losses. The main ingredients of the model are unanticipated-output and interest-rate shocks estimated from published macroeconomic and naïve forecasts. The model fits the data well, capturing the extremely high levels of loan losses witnessed in different financial crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Pesola, Jarmo, 2011. "Joint effect of financial fragility and macroeconomic shocks on bank loan losses: Evidence from Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 3134-3144, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:11:p:3134-3144
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tajik, Mohammad & Aliakbari, Saeideh & Ghalia, Thaana & Kaffash, Sepideh, 2015. "House prices and credit risk: Evidence from the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 123-135.
    2. repec:gam:jijfss:v:6:y:2018:i:2:p:50-:d:145475 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Jokivuolle, Esa & Pesola, Jarmo & Viren, Matti, 2015. "Why is credit-to-GDP a good measure for setting countercyclical capital buffers?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 117-126.
    4. Chaiporn Vithessonthi, 2016. "The Consequences of Bank Loan Growth: Evidence from Asia," PIER Discussion Papers 19., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Feb 2016.
    5. Shi, Xiaojun & Tang, Qihe & Yuan, Zhongyi, 2017. "A limit distribution of credit portfolio losses with low default probabilities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 156-167.
    6. Jokivuolle, Esa & Pesola, Jarmo & Virén, Matti, 2014. "What drives loan losses in Europe?," Research Discussion Papers 6/2014, Bank of Finland.
    7. Gulan, Adam & Haavio, Markus & Kilponen, Juha, 2014. "Kiss me deadly: From Finnish great depression to great recession," Research Discussion Papers 24/2014, Bank of Finland.
    8. repec:eco:journ2:2017-03-42 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Ismail Tijjani Idris & Sabri Nayan, 2016. "The Moderating Role of Loan Monitoring on the Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and Non-performing Loans in Association of Southeast Asian Nations Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 402-408.
    10. Ismail Tijjani Idris & Sabri Nayan, 2016. "The Joint Effects of Oil Price Volatility and Environmental Risks on Non-performing Loans: Evidence from Panel Data of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 522-528.
    11. Drehmann, Mathias & Juselius, Mikael & Korinek, Anton, 2017. "Accounting for debt service : The painful legacy of credit booms," Research Discussion Papers 12/2017, Bank of Finland.

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