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Default and Recovery Risk Dependencies in a Simple Credit Risk Model

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  • Benjamin Bade
  • Daniel Rösch
  • Harald Scheule

Abstract

This paper provides evidence for the relationship between credit quality, recovery rate, and correlation. The paper finds that rating grade, rating shift, and macroeconomic factors provide a highly significant explanation for default risk and recovery risk of US bond issues. The empirical data suggest that default and recovery processes are highly correlated. Therefore, a joint approach is required for estimating time†varying default probabilities and recovery rates that are conditional on default. This paper develops and applies such a model.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Bade & Daniel Rösch & Harald Scheule, 2011. "Default and Recovery Risk Dependencies in a Simple Credit Risk Model," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 17(1), pages 120-144, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:17:y:2011:i:1:p:120-144
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-036X.2010.00582.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Barbagli, Matteo & Vrins, Frédéric, 2023. "Accounting for PD-LGD dependency: A tractable extension to the Basel ASRF framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    2. Frank Ranganai Matenda & Mabutho Sibanda & Eriyoti Chikodza & Victor Gumbo, 2022. "Corporate Loan Recovery Rates under Downturn Conditions in a Developing Economy: Evidence from Zimbabwe," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-24, October.
    3. Florian Kaposty & Philipp Klein & Matthias Löderbusch & Andreas Pfingsten, 2022. "Loss given default in SME leasing," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 16(5), pages 1561-1597, July.
    4. Hafiz Waqas Kamran & Abdelnaser Omran & Shamsul Bahrain Mohamed-Arshad, 2019. "Risk Management, Capital Adequacy and Audit Quality for Financial Stability: Assessment from Commercial Banks of Pakistan," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 9(6), pages 654-664, June.
    5. Betz, Jennifer & Kellner, Ralf & Rösch, Daniel, 2018. "Systematic Effects among Loss Given Defaults and their Implications on Downturn Estimation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(3), pages 1113-1144.
    6. Thomas Hartmann-Wendels & Christopher Paulus Imanto, 2023. "Is the regulatory downturn LGD adequate? Performance analysis and alternative methods," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 74(3), pages 736-747, March.
    7. Wolter, Marcus & Rösch, Daniel, 2014. "Cure events in default prediction," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 238(3), pages 846-857.
    8. Franco Varetto, 2017. "La correlazione tra PD ed LGD nell’analisi del rischio di credito/The correlation between probability of default and loss given default in the credit risk analysis," IRCrES Working Paper 201714, CNR-IRCrES Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY - former Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Torino (TO) ITALY.
    9. Rubén García-Céspedes & Manuel Moreno, 2020. "Random LGD adjustments in the Vasicek credit risk model," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(18), pages 1856-1875, December.
    10. Yanlai Song & Stanford Shateyi & Jianying He & Xueqing Cui, 2022. "Interactions of Logistic Distribution to Credit Valuation Adjustment: A Study on the Associated Expected Exposure and the Conditional Value at Risk," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(20), pages 1-15, October.
    11. Alexander Becker & Alexander F. R. Koivusalo & Rudi Schafer, 2012. "Empirical Evidence for the Structural Recovery Model," Papers 1203.3188, arXiv.org.
    12. Do, Hung Xuan & Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2018. "Predicting loss severities for residential mortgage loans: A three-step selection approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 270(1), pages 246-259.
    13. Hafiz Waqas Kamran & Abdelnaser Omran & Shamsul Bahrain Mohamed-Arshad, 2019. "Risk Management, Capital Adequacy and Audit Quality for Financial Stability: Assessment from Commercial Banks of Pakistan," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 9(6), pages 654-664.
    14. Satoshi Yamashita & Toshinao Yoshiba, 2013. "A collateralized loan's loss under a quadratic Gaussian default intensity process," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(12), pages 1935-1946, December.
    15. Sascha Wilkens & Jean†Baptiste Brunac & Vladimir Chorniy, 2013. "IRC and CRM: Modelling Framework for the ‘Basel 2.5’ Risk Measures," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 19(4), pages 801-829, September.
    16. Jobst, Rainer & Kellner, Ralf & Rösch, Daniel, 2020. "Bayesian loss given default estimation for European sovereign bonds," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1073-1091.
    17. Krüger, Steffen & Oehme, Toni & Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2018. "A copula sample selection model for predicting multi-year LGDs and Lifetime Expected Losses," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 246-262.
    18. Peter-Hendrik Ingermann & Frederik Hesse & Christian Bélorgey & Andreas Pfingsten, 2016. "The recovery rate for retail and commercial customers in Germany: a look at collateral and its adjusted market values," Business Research, Springer;German Academic Association for Business Research, vol. 9(2), pages 179-228, August.
    19. Jiri Witzany, 2013. "Estimating Default and Recovery Rate Correlations," Working Papers IES 2013/03, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2013.
    20. Hibbeln, Martin & Gürtler, Marc, 2011. "Pitfalls in modeling loss given default of bank loans," Working Papers IF35V1, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Institute of Finance.
    21. Abu, Benjamin Musah & Domanban, Paul Bata & Haruna, Issahaku, 2017. "Microcredit Loan Repayment Default among Small Scale Enterprises: A Double Hurdle Approach," MPRA Paper 101576, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Mar 2017.
    22. Alexander F. R. Koivusalo & Rudi Schafer, 2011. "Calibration of structural and reduced-form recovery models," Papers 1102.4864, arXiv.org.
    23. repec:czx:journl:v:21:y:2014:i:33:id:210 is not listed on IDEAS

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