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Incorporating Collateral Value Uncertainty in Loss Given Default Estimates and Loan-to-value Ratios

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  • Esa Jokivuolle
  • Samu Peura

Abstract

We present a model of risky debt in which collateral value is correlated with the possibility of default. The model is then used to study the expected loss given default, primarily as a function of collateral. The results obtained could prove useful for estimating losses given default in many popular models of credit risk which assume them constant. We also examine the problem of determining sufficient collateral to secure a loan to a desired extent. In addition to bank practitioners, regulators might find our analysis useful in reviewing banks' lending standards relative to current collateral values. In particular, the current proposals for The New (Basel) Capital Accord involve options for the use of banks' own loss given default estimates which might benefit from the analysis in this paper. Copyright Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2003.

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  • Esa Jokivuolle & Samu Peura, 2003. "Incorporating Collateral Value Uncertainty in Loss Given Default Estimates and Loan-to-value Ratios," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 9(3), pages 299-314.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:9:y:2003:i:3:p:299-314
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    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Hlawatsch & Sebastian Ostrowski, 2010. "Simulation and Estimation of Loss Given Default," FEMM Working Papers 100010, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management.
    2. Winsen, Joseph K., 2010. "An overview of project finance binomial loan valuation," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 84-89, April.
    3. Szu-Lang Liao & Ming-Shann Tsai & Shu-Ling Chiang, 2008. "Closed-Form Mortgage Valuation Using Reduced-Form Model," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(2), pages 313-347, June.
    4. García-Vega, María & Guariglia, Alessandra & Spaliara, Marina-Eliza, 2012. "Volatility, financial constraints, and trade," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 57-76.
    5. Yuki Itoh, 2008. "Recovery Process Model," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 15(3), pages 307-347, December.
    6. Frontczak, Robert & Rostek, Stefan, 2015. "Modeling loss given default with stochastic collateral," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 162-170.
    7. Aziz Jaafar & M. Shahid Ebrahim & Fatma A. Omar & Murizah Osman Salleh, 2016. "Can Islamic Injunctions Indemnify the Structural Flaws of Securitized Debt?," Working Papers 16001, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
    8. Niinimäki, Juha-Pekka, 2010. "Moral hazard in the credit market when the collateral value is stochastic," Research Discussion Papers 22/2010, Bank of Finland.
    9. Ebrahim, M. Shahid & Jaafar, Aziz & Omar, Fatma A. & Salleh, Murizah Osman, 2016. "Can Islamic injunctions indemnify the structural flaws of securitized debt?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 271-286.
    10. repec:spr:fininn:v:1:y:2015:i:1:d:10.1186_s40854-015-0015-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Craigwell, Roland C & Elliott, Wayne A, 2011. "Loan loss provisioning in the commercial banking system of Barbados: practices and determinants," MPRA Paper 33426, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Hong Kong Monetary Authority, 2008. "The housing market channel of the monetary transmission mechanism in Hong Kong," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 221-234 Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Hui, C.H. & Lo, C.F. & Wong, T.C. & Man, P.K., 2006. "Measuring provisions for collateralised retail lending," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 343-361.
    14. Peter-Hendrik Ingermann & Frederik Hesse & Christian Bélorgey & Andreas Pfingsten, 2016. "The recovery rate for retail and commercial customers in Germany: a look at collateral and its adjusted market values," Business Research, Springer;German Academic Association for Business Research, vol. 9(2), pages 179-228, August.
    15. Juan, He & Xianglin, Jiang & Jian, Wang & Daoli, Zhu & Lei, Zhen, 2012. "VaR methods for the dynamic impawn rate of steel in inventory financing under autocorrelative return," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 223(1), pages 106-115.
    16. Tao Peng, 2010. "Portfolio Credit Risk Modelling and CDO Pricing - Analytics and Implied Trees from CDO Tranches," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 8.
    17. Tsai, Ming-Shann & Liao, Szu-Lang & Chiang, Shu-Ling, 2009. "Analyzing yield, duration and convexity of mortgage loans under prepayment and default risks," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 92-103, June.
    18. Michael Jacobs, Jr, 2011. "An option theoretic model for ultimate loss-given-default with systematic recovery risk and stochastic returns on defaulted debt," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Portfolio and risk management for central banks and sovereign wealth funds, volume 58, pages 257-285 Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Han, Chulwoo & Jang, Youngmin, 2013. "Effects of debt collection practices on loss given default," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 21-31.
    20. Leow, Mindy & Mues, Christophe, 2012. "Predicting loss given default (LGD) for residential mortgage loans: A two-stage model and empirical evidence for UK bank data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 183-195.

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