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Credit Losses in Economic Downturns - Empirical Evidence for Hong Kong Mortgage Loans

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Rosch

    (Leibniz University of Hannover)

  • Harald Scheule

    (University of Melbourne)

Abstract

Recent studies find a positive correlation between default and loss given default rates of credit portfolios. In response, financial regulators require financial institutions to base their capital on the 'Downturn' loss rate given default which is also known as Downturn LGD. This article proposes a concept for the Downturn LGD which incorporates econometric properties of credit risk as well as the information content of default and loss given default models. The concept is compared to an alternative proposal by the Department of the Treasury, the Federal Reserve System and the Federal Insurance Corporation. An empirical analysis is provided for Hong Kong mortgage loan portfolios.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Rosch & Harald Scheule, 2008. "Credit Losses in Economic Downturns - Empirical Evidence for Hong Kong Mortgage Loans," Working Papers 152008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:152008
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2003. "Loan loss provisioning and economic slowdowns: too much, too late?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 178-197, April.
    2. Daniel Rösch & Harald Scheule, 2006. "A Multi-Factor Approach for Systematic Default and Recovery Risk," Springer Books, in: Bernd Engelmann & Robert Rauhmeier (ed.), The Basel II Risk Parameters, chapter 0, pages 105-125, Springer.
    3. McNeil, Alexander J. & Wendin, Jonathan P., 2007. "Bayesian inference for generalized linear mixed models of portfolio credit risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 131-149, March.
    4. Acharya, Viral V. & Bharath, Sreedhar T. & Srinivasan, Anand, 2007. "Does industry-wide distress affect defaulted firms? Evidence from creditor recoveries," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(3), pages 787-821, September.
    5. Gordy, Michael B., 2003. "A risk-factor model foundation for ratings-based bank capital rules," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 199-232, July.
    6. Gordy, Michael B., 2000. "A comparative anatomy of credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 119-149, January.
    7. Alfred Hamerle & Thilo Liebig & Harald Scheule, 2006. "Forecasting credit event frequency – empirical evidence for West German firms," Published Paper Series 2006-1, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    8. Dirk Tasche, 2004. "The single risk factor approach to capital charges in case of correlated loss given default rates," Papers cond-mat/0402390, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2004.
    9. repec:uts:ppaper:v:15:y:2005:i:3:p:63-75 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Edward I. Altman & Brooks Brady & Andrea Resti & Andrea Sironi, 2005. "The Link between Default and Recovery Rates: Theory, Empirical Evidence, and Implications," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(6), pages 2203-2228, November.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Basel II; Business Cycle; Capital Adequacy; Correlation; Credit Risk; Economic Downturn; Expected Loss; Fixed Income; Loss Given Default; Probability of Default; Value-at-Risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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