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Estimating the basis risk of index-linked hedging strategies using multivariate extreme value theory

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  • Kellner, Ralf
  • Gatzert, Nadine

Abstract

This paper studies the empirical quantification of basis risk in the context of index-linked hedging strategies. Basis risk refers to the risk of non-payment of the index-linked instrument, given that the hedger’s loss exceeds some critical level. The quantification of such risk measures from empirical data can be done in various ways and requires special consideration of the dependence structure between the index and the company’s losses as well as the estimation of the tails of a distribution. In this context, previous literature shows that extreme value theory can be superior to traditional methods with respect to estimating quantile risk measures such as the value at risk. Thus, the aim of this paper is to conduct an empirical analysis of basis risk using multivariate extreme value theory and extreme value copulas to estimate the underlying risk processes and their dependence structure in order to obtain a more adequate picture of basis risk associated with index-linked hedging strategies. Our results emphasize that the application of extreme value theory leads to better fits of the tails of the marginal distributions in the considered stock price sample and that traditional methods in regard to estimating marginal distributions tend to overestimate basis risk, while basis risk can in contrast be higher when taking into account extreme value copulas.

Suggested Citation

  • Kellner, Ralf & Gatzert, Nadine, 2013. "Estimating the basis risk of index-linked hedging strategies using multivariate extreme value theory," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4353-4367.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:37:y:2013:i:11:p:4353-4367
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.07.043
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Fuentes, Fernanda & Herrera, Rodrigo & Clements, Adam, 2018. "Modeling extreme risks in commodities and commodity currencies," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 108-120.
    2. Ceballos, Francisco, 2016. "Estimating spatial basis risk in rainfall index insurance: Methodology and application to excess rainfall insurance in Uruguay," IFPRI discussion papers 1595, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Daly, Kevin & Batten, Jonathan A. & Mishra, Anil V. & Choudhury, Tonmoy, 2019. "Contagion risk in global banking sector," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    4. He, Junnan & Tang, Qihe & Zhang, Huan, 2016. "Risk reducers in convex order," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 80-88.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Extreme value theory; Index-linked hedging instruments; Copulas;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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