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Semiparametric estimation of multi-asset portfolio tail risk*

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  • Dias, Alexandra

Abstract

When correlations between assets turn positive, multi-asset portfolios can become riskier than single assets. This article presents the estimation of tail risk at very high quantiles using a semiparametric estimator which is particularly suitable for portfolios with a large number of assets. The estimator captures simultaneously the information contained in each individual asset return that composes the portfolio, and the interrelation between assets. Noticeably, the accuracy of the estimates does not deteriorate when the number of assets in the portfolio increases. The implementation is as easy for a large number of assets as it is for a small number. We estimate the probability distribution of large losses for the American stock market considering portfolios with ten, fifty and one hundred assets of stocks with different market capitalization. In either case, the approximation for the portfolio tail risk is very accurate. We compare our results with well known benchmark models.

Suggested Citation

  • Dias, Alexandra, 2014. "Semiparametric estimation of multi-asset portfolio tail risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 398-408.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:49:y:2014:i:c:p:398-408
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.05.033
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    Replication

    This item has been replicated by:
  • Xu, Jiahua, 2019. "Semiparametric Value-At-Risk Estimation of Portfolios. A replication study of Dias (Journal of Banking & Finance, 2014)," International Journal for Re-Views in Empirical Economics (IREE), ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 3(2019-6), pages 1-20.

    • More about this item

    Keywords

    Multi-asset portfolios; Risk management; Tail probability; Tail risk; Multivariate extreme value theory; Value-at-Risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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