Modelling extreme financial returns of global equity markets
Extreme asset price movements appear to be more pronounced recently and have major consequences for an economy’s financial stability and monetary policies. This paper investigates the extreme behaviour of equity market returns and quantifies the probabilities of these losses. Taking fourteen major equity markets the study is able to ascertain similarities and divergences in the tail returns from around the world. To do so, it applies extreme value theory to equity indices representing American, Asian and European markets. The paper finds that all markets tail realisations are adequately modelled with the fat-tailed Fréchet distribution. Furthermore tail realisations associated with the downside of a distribution are greater than those associated with the upside, and extreme returns for Asian markets are usually larger than their European and American counterparts.
|Date of creation:||2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Cotter, John, 2004.
"Downside Risk for European Equity Markets,"
3537, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Hartmann, Philipp & Straetmans, Stefan & de Vries, Casper, 2001.
"Asset market linkages in crisis periods,"
Working Paper Series
0071, European Central Bank.
- Philipp Hartman & Stefan Straetmans & Casper De Vries, 2001. "Asset market linkages in crisis periods," Proceedings 727, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Hartmann, P. & Straetmans, S. & De Vries, C.G., 2001. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," Papers 71, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
- P. Hartmann & S. Straetmans & C.G. de Vries, 2001. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-071/2, Tinbergen Institute.
- de Vries, Casper G & Hartmann, Philipp & Straetmans, Stefan, 2001. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," CEPR Discussion Papers 2916, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Pownall, Rachel A. J. & Koedijk, Kees G., 1999. "Capturing downside risk in financial markets: the case of the Asian Crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 853-870, December.
- Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 2000. "Bubbles and Crises," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 236-55, January.
- Cotter, John, 2001.
"Margin exceedences for European stock index futures using extreme value theory,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1475-1502, August.
- Cotter, John, 2000. "Margin Exceedences for European Stock Index Futures using Extreme Value Theory," MPRA Paper 3534, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2001.
- Cotter, John, 2004.
"Tail Behaviour of the Euro,"
3531, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2005.
- Garber, Peter M, 1990. "Famous First Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 35-54, Spring.
- Loretan, Mico & Phillips, Peter C. B., 1994.
"Testing the covariance stationarity of heavy-tailed time series: An overview of the theory with applications to several financial datasets,"
Journal of Empirical Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 211-248, January.
- Loretan, M. & Phillips, P.C.B., 1992. "Testing the Covariance Stationarity of Heavy-Tailed Time Series: An Overview of the Theory with Applications to Several Financial Datasets," Working papers 9208, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- François Longin, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, 04.
- Longin, Francois M, 1996. "The Asymptotic Distribution of Extreme Stock Market Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(3), pages 383-408, July.
- Jansen, Dennis W. & Koedijk, Kees G. & de Vries, Casper G., 2000. "Portfolio selection with limited downside risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 247-269, November.
- Huisman, Ronald, et al, 2001. "Tail-Index Estimates in Small Samples," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 208-16, April.
- Longin, Francois M., 2000. "From value at risk to stress testing: The extreme value approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1097-1130, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:3532. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.