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Intra-Day Seasonality in Foreign Exchange Market Transactions

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  • Cotter, John
  • Dowd, Kevin

Abstract

This paper examines the intra-day seasonality of transacted limit and market orders in the DEM/USD foreign exchange market. Empirical analysis of completed transactions data based on the Dealing 2000-2 electronic inter-dealer broking system indicates significant evidence of intraday seasonality in returns and return volatilities under usual market conditions. Moreover, analysis of realised tail outcomes supports seasonality for extraordinary market conditions across the trading day.

Suggested Citation

  • Cotter, John & Dowd, Kevin, 2007. "Intra-Day Seasonality in Foreign Exchange Market Transactions," MPRA Paper 3502, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:3502
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3502/1/MPRA_paper_3502.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 6, pages 247-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March.
    3. Cotter, John & Dowd, Kevin, 2007. "The tail risks of FX return distributions: A comparison of the returns associated with limit orders and market orders," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 146-154, September.
    4. Loretan, Mico & Phillips, Peter C. B., 1994. "Testing the covariance stationarity of heavy-tailed time series: An overview of the theory with applications to several financial datasets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 211-248, January.
    5. Danielsson, J. & Payne, R., 2002. "Real trading patterns and prices in spot foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 203-222, April.
    6. Carlson, John A. & Lo, Melody, 2006. "One minute in the life of the DM/US$: Public news in an electronic market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1090-1102, November.
    7. Payne, Richard, 2003. "Informed trade in spot foreign exchange markets: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 307-329, December.
    8. Ito, Takatoshi & Hashimoto, Yuko, 2006. "Intraday seasonality in activities of the foreign exchange markets: Evidence from the electronic broking system," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 637-664, December.
    9. Osler, Carol & Savaser, Tanseli, 2011. "Extreme returns: The case of currencies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2868-2880, November.
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    11. Huisman, Ronald, et al, 2001. "Tail-Index Estimates in Small Samples," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 208-216, April.
    12. Michael A. Goldstein & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, "undated". "Liquidity Provision during Circuit Breakers and Extreme Market Movements," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 01-00, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    13. John Cotter, 2005. "Tail behaviour of the euro," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(7), pages 827-840.
    14. de Haan, Laurens & Resnick, Sidney I. & Rootzén, Holger & de Vries, Casper G., 1989. "Extremal behaviour of solutions to a stochastic difference equation with applications to arch processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 213-224, August.
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    16. Lo, Ingrid & Sapp, Stephen G., 2008. "The submission of limit orders or market orders: The role of timing and information in the Reuters D2000-2 system," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1056-1073, November.
    17. Harris, Lawrence & Hasbrouck, Joel, 1996. "Market vs. Limit Orders: The SuperDOT Evidence on Order Submission Strategy," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(2), pages 213-231, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Chun-nan, 2013. "The predictability of opening returns for the returns of the trading day: Evidence from Taiwan futures market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 272-281.
    2. Corbet, Shaen & Hou, Yang (Greg) & Hu, Yang & Oxley, Les & Xu, Danyang, 2021. "Pandemic-related financial market volatility spillovers: Evidence from the Chinese COVID-19 epicentre," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 55-81.
    3. Vortelinos, Dimitrios I., 2014. "Non-parametric analysis of equity arbitrage," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 199-216.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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