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Extreme Returns: The Case of Currencies

Author

Listed:
  • Carol Osler

    () (International Business School, Brandeis University)

  • Tanseli Savaser

    (Department of Economics, Williams College)

Abstract

This paper investigates how active price-contingent trading contributes to extreme returns even in the absence of news. Price-contingent trading, which is common across financial markets, includes algorithmic trading, technical trading, and dynamic option hedging. The paper highlights four properties of such trading that increase the frequency of extreme returns, and then estimates the relative of these properties using data from the foreign exchange market. The four key properties we consider are: (1) high kurtosis in the distribution of order sizes; (2) clustering of trades within the day; (3) clustering of trades at certain prices; and (4) positive and negative feedback between trading and returns. Calibrated simulations indicate that interactions among these properties are at least as important as any single one. Among individual properties, the orders’ size distribution and feedback effects have the strongest influence. Price-contingent trading could account for over half of realized excess kurtosis in currency returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Carol Osler & Tanseli Savaser, 2010. "Extreme Returns: The Case of Currencies," Working Papers 04, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School.
  • Handle: RePEc:brd:wpaper:04
    as

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    File URL: http://www.brandeis.edu/economics/RePEc/brd/doc/Brandeis_WP04.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Stop Orders Drive Half of Abnormal Currency Moves, Suggests Research
      by admin in HistorySquared on 2011-06-30 00:03:19

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. King, Michael R. & Osler, Carol L. & Rime, Dagfinn, 2013. "The market microstructure approach to foreign exchange: Looking back and looking forward," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 95-119.
    2. Cotter, John & Dowd, Kevin, 2010. "Intra-day seasonality in foreign exchange market transactions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 287-294, April.
    3. Patrick Steffen Michelberger & Jan Hendrik Witte, 2015. "Foreign Exchange Market Microstructure and the WM/Reuters 4pm Fix," Papers 1501.07778, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2016.
    4. Katusiime, Lorna & Shamsuddin, Abul & Agbola, Frank W., 2015. "Foreign exchange market efficiency and profitability of trading rules: Evidence from a developing country," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 315-332.
    5. Erdemlioglu, Deniz & Laurent, Sébastien & Neely, Christopher J., 2015. "Which continuous-time model is most appropriate for exchange rates?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(S2), pages 256-268.
    6. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Gradojevic, Nikola & Erdemlioglu, Deniz & Gençay, Ramazan, 2017. "Informativeness of trade size in foreign exchange markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 27-33.
    8. Lallouache, Mehdi & Abergel, Frédéric, 2014. "Tick size reduction and price clustering in a FX order book," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 416(C), pages 488-498.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crash; Fat Tails; Kurtosis; Exchange Rates; Order Flow; High-Frequency; Microstructure; Jump Process; Value-At-Risk; Risk Management;

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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