IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Which continuous-time model is most appropriate for exchange rates?

  • Deniz Erdemlioglu
  • Sébastien Laurent
  • Christopher J. Neely

This paper attempts to realistically model the underlying exchange rate data generating process. We ask what types of diffusion or jump features are most appropriate. The most plausible model for 1-minute data features Brownian motion and Poisson jumps but not infinite activity jumps. Modeling periodic volatility is necessary to accurately identify the frequency of jump occurrences and their locations. We propose a two-stage method to capture the effects of these periodic volatility patterns. Simulations show that microstructure noise does not significantly impair the statistical tests for jumps and diffusion behavior.>

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2013/2013-024.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2013-024.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2013-024
Contact details of provider: Postal:
P.O. Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166

Fax: (314)444-8753
Web page: http://www.stlouisfed.org/

More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Geman, Helyette, 2002. "Pure jump Levy processes for asset price modelling," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1297-1316, July.
  2. Neely, Christopher J., 1999. "Target zones and conditional volatility: The role of realignments," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 177-192, April.
  3. Nikolaus Hautsch & Dieter Hess & David Veredas, 2011. "The impact of macroeconomic news on quote adjustments, noise and informational volatility," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/136190, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  4. King, Michael R. & Osler, Carol L. & Rime, Dagfinn, 2013. "The market microstructure approach to foreign exchange: Looking back and looking forward," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 95-119.
  5. Mardi Dungey & Lyudmyla Hvozdyk, 2010. "Cojumping: Evidence from the US Treasury Bond and Futures Markets," NCER Working Paper Series 56, National Centre for Econometric Research, revised 20 Jul 2010.
  6. George Tauchen & Viktor Todorov, 2010. "Activity Signature Functions for High-Frequency Data Analysis," Working Papers 10-08, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  7. Jingzhi Huang & Liuren Wu, 2004. "Specification Analysis of Option Pricing Models Based on Time- Changed Levy Processes," Finance 0401002, EconWPA.
  8. Carr, Peter & Wu, Liuren, 2004. "Time-changed Levy processes and option pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 113-141, January.
  9. Tim Bollerslev & Viktor Todorov, 2009. "Tails, Fears and Risk Premia," CREATES Research Papers 2009-26, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  10. Jérôme Lahaye & Sébastien Laurent & Christopher J. Neely, 2011. "Jumps, cojumps and macro announcements," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 893-921, 09.
  11. Kathryn Dominguez & Freyan Panthaki, 2005. "What Defines 'News' in Foreign Exchange Markets," Working Papers 547, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  12. Peter Carr & Helyette Geman, 2002. "The Fine Structure of Asset Returns: An Empirical Investigation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(2), pages 305-332, April.
  13. Melino, Angelo & Turnbull, Stuart M., 1990. "Pricing foreign currency options with stochastic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 239-265.
  14. Dilip B. Madan & Peter P. Carr & Eric C. Chang, 1998. "The Variance Gamma Process and Option Pricing," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 2(1), pages 79-105.
  15. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
  16. Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Jean Jacod, 2012. "Analyzing the Spectrum of Asset Returns: Jump and Volatility Components in High Frequency Data," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1007-50, December.
  17. Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2003. "What Type of Process Underlies Options? A Simple Robust Test," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2581-2610, December.
  18. Lustig, H. & Verdelhan, A., 2006. "The Cross-Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk," Working papers 155, Banque de France.
  19. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Roughing it Up: Including Jump Components in the Measurement, Modeling and Forecasting of Return Volatility," NBER Working Papers 11775, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Hans DEWACHTER & Deniz ERDEMLIOGLU & Jean-Yves GNABO & Christelle LECOURT, 2013. "The intra-day impact of communication on euro-dollar volatility and jumps," Working Papers Department of Economics ces13.04, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
  21. Merton, Robert C., 1975. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Working papers 787-75., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  22. Chesney, Marc & Scott, Louis, 1989. "Pricing European Currency Options: A Comparison of the Modified Black-Scholes Model and a Random Variance Model," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(03), pages 267-284, September.
  23. Tim Bollerslev & Viktor Todorov, 2010. "Estimation of Jump Tails," Working Papers 10-37, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  24. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1997. "Intraday periodicity and volatility persistence in financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 115-158, June.
  25. Marcel P. Visser, 2011. "GARCH Parameter Estimation Using High-Frequency Data," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 9(1), pages 162-197, Winter.
  26. Carr, Peter & Wu, Liuren, 2007. "Stochastic skew in currency options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 213-247, October.
  27. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen, 2004. "Power and Bipower Variation with Stochastic Volatility and Jumps," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 2(1), pages 1-37.
  28. Osler, Carol & Savaser, Tanseli, 2011. "Extreme returns: The case of currencies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2868-2880, November.
  29. Alain Hecq & Sébastien Laurent & Franz C. Palm, 2011. "Common Intraday Periodicity," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 10(2), pages 325-353, 2012 20 1.
  30. Lee, Suzanne S. & Hannig, Jan, 2010. "Detecting jumps from Lévy jump diffusion processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 271-290, May.
  31. Maheu, John M. & McCurdy, Thomas H. & Zhao, Xiaofei, 2013. "Do jumps contribute to the dynamics of the equity premium?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 457-477.
  32. Boudt, Kris & Croux, Christophe & Laurent, Sébastien, 2011. "Robust estimation of intraweek periodicity in volatility and jump detection," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 353-367, March.
  33. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Dobrislav Dobrev, 2007. "No-Arbitrage Semi-Martingale Restrictions for Continuous-Time Volatility Models subject to Leverage Effects, Jumps and i.i.d. Noise: Theory and Testable Distributional Implications," NBER Working Papers 12963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Dungey, Mardi & McKenzie, Michael & Smith, L. Vanessa, 2009. "Empirical evidence on jumps in the term structure of the US Treasury Market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 430-445, June.
  35. Bates, David S, 1996. "Jumps and Stochastic Volatility: Exchange Rate Processes Implicit in Deutsche Mark Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 69-107.
  36. Carol L. Osler, 2002. "Stop-loss orders and price cascades in currency markets," Staff Reports 150, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  37. Richard T. Baillie & Tim Bollerslev, 1991. "Intra-Day and Inter-Market Volatility in Foreign Exchange Rates," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 565-585.
  38. Itamar Drechsler & Amir Yaron, 2011. "What's Vol Got to Do with It," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(1), pages 1-45.
  39. Eduardo R. Borensztein & Michael P. Dooley, 1987. "Options on Foreign Exchange and Exchange Rate Expectations," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 34(4), pages 643-680, December.
  40. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Jacod, Jean & Li, Jia, 2012. "Testing for jumps in noisy high frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 168(2), pages 207-222.
  41. Haitao Li & Martin T. Wells & Cindy L. Yu, 2008. "A Bayesian Analysis of Return Dynamics with Lévy Jumps," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(5), pages 2345-2378, September.
  42. Bakshi, Gurdip & Carr, Peter & Wu, Liuren, 2008. "Stochastic risk premiums, stochastic skewness in currency options, and stochastic discount factors in international economies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 132-156, January.
  43. Philippe Jorion, 1988. "On Jump Processes in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(4), pages 427-445.
  44. Denis Belomestny, 2009. "Spectral estimation of the fractional order of a Lévy process," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-021, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  45. repec:cor:louvrp:-2443 is not listed on IDEAS
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2013-024. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anna Xiao)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.