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Options on Foreign Exchange and Exchange Rate Expectations

Author

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  • Eduardo R. Borensztein

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Michael P. Dooley

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

This paper tests alternative assumptions concerning the time-series behavior of foreign exchange rates. Data for about 20,000 individual trades on foreign exchange options for dollar exchange rates against six major currencies carried out from February 1983 to June 1985 are analyzed. The tests carried out suggest that, judging from the predictions of a model of options prices based on the assumption that exchange rates follow a diffusion process, market participants paid too high a price for call options that would have been profitable only if the dollar depreciated substantially within a short time period. An alternative model which allows for discrete jumps in exchange rates is found to be more consistent with the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Eduardo R. Borensztein & Michael P. Dooley, 1987. "Options on Foreign Exchange and Exchange Rate Expectations," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 34(4), pages 643-680, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:34:y:1987:i:4:p:643-680
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bernard Dumas & Lars Peter Jennergren & Bertil Näslund, 1992. "Currency option pricing in credible target zones," Working Papers hal-00611601, HAL.
    2. Pierdzioch, Christian, 2000. "Noise Traders? Trigger Rates, FX Options, and Smiles," Kiel Working Papers 970, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Jiang, George J., 1998. "Jump-diffusion model of exchange rate dynamics : estimation via indirect inference," Research Report 98A40, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    4. Bates, David S., 1996. "Dollar jump fears, 1984-1992: distributional abnormalities implicit in currency futures options," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 65-93, February.
    5. Erdemlioglu, Deniz & Laurent, Sébastien & Neely, Christopher J., 2015. "Which continuous-time model is most appropriate for exchange rates?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(S2), pages 256-268.
    6. Vajanne, Laura, . "The Exchange Rate Under Target Zones," ETLA A, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, number 16, June.
    7. repec:dgr:rugsom:98a40 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. David S. Bates, 1995. "Testing Option Pricing Models," NBER Working Papers 5129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Bonser-Neal, Catherine & Tanner, Glenn, 1996. "Central bank intervention and the volatility of foreign exchange rates: evidence from the options market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 853-878, December.
    10. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    11. Shang-Jin Wei & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1991. "Are Option-Implied Forecasts of Exchange Rate Volatility Excessively Variable?," NBER Working Papers 3910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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