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Informativeness of trade size in foreign exchange markets

Author

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  • Gradojevic, Nikola
  • Erdemlioglu, Deniz
  • Gençay, Ramazan

Abstract

This article investigates a trading strategy that relies on private information in an electronic spot foreign exchange market. In a structural microstructure model extended for high-frequency data, our analysis links the informational content of trading activity to order size. We find that large currency orders are likely to be placed by informed traders during increased price volatility episodes. In addition, the data suggest that excess kurtosis in exchange rate returns (corresponding to large price-contingent trades) is significantly lower than that in small trades.

Suggested Citation

  • Gradojevic, Nikola & Erdemlioglu, Deniz & Gençay, Ramazan, 2017. "Informativeness of trade size in foreign exchange markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 27-33.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:150:y:2017:i:c:p:27-33
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2016.11.010
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    Cited by:

    1. Cui, Zhenyu & Taylor, Stephen, 2020. "Arbitrage detection using max plus product iteration on foreign exchange rate graphs," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    2. Tahara, Hiroki, 2020. "On the Applicability of the Black-Scholes Model to the Inverse Quantity of Price (Under Peer-Review)," OSF Preprints fgnca, Center for Open Science.
    3. Nihad Aliyev & Xue-Zhong He, 2017. "Ambiguous Market Making," Research Paper Series 383, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    4. Nihad Aliyev, 2019. "Financial Markets with Multidimensional Uncertainty," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2-2019, January-A.
    5. Sensoy, Ahmet & Serdengeçti, Süleyman, 2019. "Intraday volume-volatility nexus in the FX markets: Evidence from an emerging market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-12.
    6. Donald Lien & Pi-Hsia Hung, 2023. "Whose trades contribute more to price discovery? Evidence from the Taiwan stock exchange," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 213-263, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign exchange markets; Volume; Trade size; Volatility; Informed trading; Noise trading; Market microstructure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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