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Order Flow in the South: Anatomy of the Brazilian FX Market

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  • Wu, Thomas Y

Abstract

This paper explores a unique dataset that contains 100% of the customer áows from domestic dealers in the Brazilian FX retail market. We present two sets of results. First, we Önd a strict link between currency áows from the FX market and the Balance of Payments. Second, we examine the long-run and short-run behaviors of each of the main players in the FX market. Our VECM estimates show that while the commercial customer áow is negatively related to exchange rate trend, the Önancial and the central bank intervention customer áows are positively related to exchange rate deviations from the long run trend. Our impulse response function also show that dealers charge a premium in order to provide unexpected overnight liquidity; that customers have "stabilizing" feedback trading; and that the central bank not only provides liquidity but also leans-against-the-wind when intervening.

Suggested Citation

  • Wu, Thomas Y, 2008. "Order Flow in the South: Anatomy of the Brazilian FX Market," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt968459j2, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucscec:qt968459j2
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    Cited by:

    1. Calebe de Roure & Steven Furnagiev & Stefan Reitz, 2015. "The microstructure of exchange rate management: FX intervention and capital controls in Brazil," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(34-35), pages 3617-3632, July.
    2. João Barata Ribeiro Blanco Barroso, 2018. "Realized Volatility as an Instrument to Official Intervention," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Alberto Ortiz-Bolaños (ed.), Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in Latin America and the Caribbean, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 259-281, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    3. Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza & Marins, Jaqueline Terra Moura, 2017. "Evaluation of exchange rate point and density forecasts: An application to Brazil," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 707-728.
    4. Santos, Francisco Luna & Garcia, Márcio Gomes Pinto & Medeiros, Marcelo Cunha, 2015. "Price Discovery in Brazilian FX Markets," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 35(1), October.
    5. Esen Onur, 2008. "The role of asymmetric information among investors in the foreign exchange market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 368-385.
    6. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins, 2014. "Risk Assessment of the Brazilian FX Rate," Working Papers Series 344, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

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